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Last Lecture Series: “How to Live an Asymmetric Life,” Graham Weaver

节目发布 2023-07-18 · Stanford Graduate School of Business
格雷厄姆·韦弗 LLogan
EDITED TRANSCRIPT · 依据现场录音编译整理,可划线生成便签
本文整理自斯坦福商学院「最后一课」(Last Lecture Series)系列演讲,题为《如何过一种不对称的人生》(How to Live an Asymmetric Life)。讲者格雷厄姆·韦弗(Graham Weaver)是私募股权公司 Alpine Investors 的创始人兼首席执行官,2001 年创业至今,专注收购软件与服务业企业,并以「把 MBA 培养成 CEO」的路径闻名;开场由商学院学生洛根(Logan)主持,韦弗在演讲中多次回引他提到的赛艇选拔与「神灯目标」。全文依据现场录音编译整理,仅删去口语枝节、寒暄与重复,论点、例证与语气一概保留。

二十九层上最糟的一天

主持人: ……去改变世界。

韦弗: 二十年前,我坐在一间会议室里。一张能坐二十个人的大会议桌,只有我一个人。旧金山金融区,第二十九层,窗外是整片海湾,能看见恶魔岛,什么都能看见。那时候我的年纪和在座各位差不多。那是我最大的一位投资人的会议室。这个人我姑且叫他乔,一个传奇人物,做对冲基金的,行业里响当当的名字。

韦弗: 我坐在那儿,怕得要死。我在发抖,嗓子发干,我能听见乔朝这边走过来的脚步声,然后门把手一转,他进来了。还是那副巨大的、扑面而来的气场:「格雷厄姆!」他很兴奋。他一坐下就看出不对劲。我告诉乔,他投在我基金里的钱亏了 50%,一半没了。而且那不是他公司的钱,是他个人的钱。我眼看着那股气从他身上一点点泄掉。最糟的是,他还在拼命保持正面,因为他知道只要说错一句话就会把我碾碎,我当时太脆弱了,而他是我最大的投资人。

韦弗: 为了募第一支基金,我被一百多个人拒绝过。只有五六个像乔这样的人点了头,不是因为我有什么业绩记录,我根本没有,而是因为他信我这个人。他投的就是格雷厄姆·韦弗本人。而我交给他的成绩单,是他一半的钱没了。那是我职业生涯最糟的一天,直到今天也还是。

从「不要亏钱」到不对称

韦弗: 我当年自以为懂的那套投资道理,全是错的。我当时信奉的是:第一条,不要亏钱;第二条,永远别忘了第一条。于是我把所有精力都花在把局做小上,护住下行,拼命不要输。我们按低于净资产的价格买公司。哪怕事情办对了,也对不到哪儿去。有三次我在投资备忘录上白纸黑字写着:这笔投资在数学上不可能亏钱。三次全亏了。

韦弗: 我从中学到的东西是这样的。你可以想象一下,你开始谈恋爱,而你谈恋爱的唯一目的是别让自己心碎。那你必然是一只脚踏进去,一只脚留在外面。就算约会对象条件不错,这段关系也好不到哪里去,因为你根本没真的进去。而更可能的结局是,你恰恰保证了那个你极力想避免的结果:你还是会心碎。

韦弗: 接下来的三十年里,我慢慢意识到,我做投资的方式和我应该做的方式差了整整一百八十度。这辈子你做任何事,只要你投入,就一定有下行,你永远不可能把它压到零。你也许能减少一点点,但真正值钱的、真正有魔力的部分,是上行能有多大。事情顺利的时候会怎样?我在课上写的是「假设成功」。如果一切顺利,会发生什么?

韦弗: 做了三十年职业投资人,我可以用一个词概括什么叫伟大的投资:不对称性(asymmetry)。你要找的是相对于风险而言最大的可能结果。而你的风险通常只是亏掉一倍本金,你顶多亏这么多。所以你要做的是把一层层条件叠加起来,直到它变得不对称。举个例子:一支极优秀的管理团队,他们会拼命工作、会招到对的人;这个行业有近乎无限的容量,他们能以高回报率不断把资本再投出去;而且你可以持有十年,还想继续持有下去。你把这些条件叠起来,它们不是线性相加,而是以对数的方式叠乘,结果可以趋近于无限。你不再是像我们早年那样博一点五倍、两倍,你可以博十倍、二十倍、五十倍、一百倍。而这样的投资,你这辈子并不需要做很多笔。

韦弗: 后来我意识到,我怎么投资,就是我怎么过日子。我在把局做小,我在为了不输而打,我只是拼命不要输。所以今天我要讲的,是如何过一种不对称的人生。一共四条原则。你做对其中一条,人生就会明显改善;做对两三条,你会拥有一段近乎神奇的人生;如果四条你能全部通关,你的人生可以是无限的,你几乎能得到你想要的任何东西,而且你会带着喜悦、带着能量,一路撑上几十年。这一点我是有亲身经验的。

原则一:去做难的事

韦弗: 第一条原则是:去做难的事。我们有一种默认的观念,觉得人生本该轻松,觉得幸福藏在舒适里。你可以用手机点一份 SweetGreen 的沙拉碗,可以刷完《继承之战》和《足球教练》,过一种毫不费力的生活,多巴胺来得又快又爽。但你别搞错了,那不是路,那恰恰是路的反面。

韦弗: 我大学时划赛艇。在赛艇里衡量进步、决定你能进哪条艇,靠的就是洛根刚才说的测功仪测试:你坐上划船机,用尽全力划两千米。队里有句话,如果你测完还能再多划一桨,那就说明你刚才没拉尽全力。所以怎么划都会痛,一定会痛。

韦弗: 整个赛季下来,从我报到那天,大概是九月一号,一直到次年三月,我的成绩大约会提高二十秒。第一天开始就是全面的体能训练,什么都练:划船、跑体育场台阶、举重,没完没了。那是折磨人的,量非常大。可我刚才说的那一整套,练满六个月,只贡献了二十秒里的十秒。另外十秒,出现在头两个星期。

韦弗: 你会问,什么?头两个星期怎么可能快十秒?我告诉你头两周没有发生什么:你的心肺能力没有变,你的力量没有变,你的最大摄氧量没有变,你的技术也没有变。唯一变了的,是你对不舒服的容忍度。你发现自己能比原以为的逼得更狠。变的只有这个。全年一半的进步,仅仅来自我一遍遍提醒自己:我的余量比我以为的多得多。划到七百五十米、心率一百七十五的时候,我还能继续。

任何改变都会先变糟

韦弗: 我这里有一张图,画的是我们的人生。事情通常是这样的:我们变得安逸,或者说麻木了。如果想往前走,想爬上下一个山头,关键是要明白:你的生活几乎一定会先变糟。你想做的任何一种改变,几乎一定会先变糟。

韦弗: 你在一段关系里,需要进行一次艰难的谈话,那天晚上你的日子就是会难过一点,然后你才会从另一头走出来,日子才会变好。或者你需要离开一段本来就不该待着的关系,你的生活会先变糟。你想转行,想学一样新东西,你就得走一遍学习曲线:薪水多半会降,刚开始你在新岗位上并不称职,生活会先变糟。你想养成一个新习惯,洗冷水澡、冥想、开始锻炼,都会先变糟。

韦弗: 你会一次次走这条曲线。你要认清的是,把你钉在原地的,就是那个「第一步总是更糟」。而慢慢地,那些向下的凹陷会变得越来越浅。你知道那个凹陷里最大的一块是什么吗?就是恐惧。那道坑里最大的成分只是恐惧。

韦弗: 所以你越是把自己放进要做难事的处境,那些凹陷就越浅,因为恐惧被你一点点拿掉了,就像我说的赛艇那件事。划到两千米、划到一千五百米的时候,我已经没有恐惧了。这辈子你想要的一切,都在「先变糟」的另一边。想过不对称的人生,就去做难的事。

原则二:做属于你的事

韦弗: 第二条原则:做属于你的事。我毕业的时候,大概和你们中很多人一样,面临一个选择,基本上是两条路。一条是来校园招聘的一家公司,我知道我干得了,因为读商学院之前我干的就是这个,一家大型私募股权公司,我好几个同学和我一起去,有薪水,有奖金,有免费午餐,一切清清楚楚。另一条路,就是洛根刚才提到的,我在商学院期间干的那些疯事:刷信用卡去买公司。而我心里想的是,我根本不知道那玩意儿怎么运转,不知道它长什么样,不知道从哪儿开始,不知道怎么募钱。所以我选了去大公司那条路。

韦弗: 我告诉你那段时间发生了什么。老板对我说:想升副总裁,你要做到这些,这就是你的球门。于是我像疯了一样朝那个球门冲刺,你们每个人都会这样,因为你们好胜,你们想到达那里。我赶最早的航班,去为一个个标的报价,他们让我看哪家公司我就去看哪家,我把我有的一切都砸了进去。如果那时候我已经有孩子,我会天天很晚回家,会错过孩子的少年棒球赛。

韦弗: 问题在于,佛陀在两千八百年前就把这件事想明白了。佛教的第一条道理叫「苦」(dukkha):无论你选哪条路,都会有苦。没有轻松的路,没有安全的路,没有毫不费力的路,没有哪条路能让一切都刚刚好。你横竖都要受苦。很抱歉由我来告诉你们这件事。

韦弗: 但我毕业二十年了,这大概是我今天要说的最真的一句话:人生就是受苦,所以去挑一件值得为它受苦的事。

晚宴上的戴夫

韦弗: 这道方程里你还漏算了一样东西。你会去算期望值,对吧?可有一项你没有放进去:你没有把「被点燃时的你自己」算进去。

韦弗: 我在纽约参加过一场晚宴,一屋子做私募的人,场面很荒唐。我们去的那家餐厅,就是那种把冰台摆出来、鱼头都埋在冰里的地方,你可以走过去指着你要的那条鱼。而为了这份指鱼的特权,同样一条鱼你要多付四倍的钱。我们订的是晚上八点,订了位子还是拖到九点一刻才落座,那通常已经是我的睡觉时间。席间有位女士坐着专车来,来自汉普顿。如果我当时手里有个计数器,她那顿饭大概说了十三次「汉普顿」。我忍不住问:请教一下,您在汉普顿是不是有房子?我有点糊涂了。

韦弗: 但那天在场还有一个人,叫戴夫。戴夫跟我做一样的生意,在一家竞争对手公司里担任跟我一样的角色。戴夫一坐下就滔滔不绝:我刚拿下一个项目,你绝对不敢相信!事情是这样的,我们在债务条款上是这么做的,我们没有让契约条件逐季收紧,我们把债务对息税折旧摊销前利润的比率两个季度都保持不下调,光利息就能省五十个基点。我们用的是调整后的、按备考口径计的前十二个月利润,再乘以三百六十五天,所以在债务上多拿了四分之一的回报,这样一来我们的……他就这么一路说下去。

韦弗: 我当时心想,戴夫这架势,简直像是在殖民火星。他自己脑子里就是在殖民火星。而我脑子里冒出两个念头。第一个念头是:戴夫会把我打得落花流水。因为这些东西我一点都不在乎。第二个念头是:这就是戴夫当年商学院申请文书里写的东西。他正在过他写下的那种生活,他正在做他真心想做的事。

韦弗: 你没法靠着别人的梦想赢。你可以撑一阵子,但你赢不了。想过不对称的人生,就去做难的事,做属于你的事。

原则三:把 n 拉到几十年

韦弗: 第三条原则:做上几十年。这一条大概很多人不爱听。我和你们中不少人聊过,对话往往是这样开头的:我室友他姐的朋友梅根炒狗狗币赚了两百万,那本来可以是我,只是我没在对的时间待在对的地方。她朋友克里斯汀在炒无聊猿的 NFT,每个月有三万块被动收入。所以你觉得,只要当初站对了位置那也可以是你,而现在你落后了,你还没到那儿,你比你本该到的地方落后一大截。

韦弗: 我坐在这个校园里的时候也这么想过。我那会儿是互联网 1.0,做面向消费者的生意,比如 petfood.com。我同学一窝蜂全去了。那晚那顿饭上,戴夫如果问我,当然戴夫不是个好的谈话者,所以他压根没问,但假如他问我在为什么事情兴奋,我会跟他讲我在做的那家小小的标签印刷公司。我会讲我们想在这家公司里建起什么样的文化,讲我们如何以小博大,讲我们看中一个人的特质就把他从一家上市公司挖了过来,别人根本没想到还能这么招人;讲我们在工厂里推行精益生产;讲我们在造一种能让人愿意待一辈子的文化;讲我们从高中生里招人,一步步把他们训练成印刷机操作工。而戴夫的反应大概会是:这家伙搞个屁大点的标签公司,还以为自己在改变世界。

韦弗: 当时没有被算进去的,是我愿意一直做下去,因为我爱这件事。你想想回报的公式:(1 + r)的 n 次方。r 在底数上,n 在指数上,公式里最有力量的部分是 n,也就是你复利了多少年。

韦弗: 拿我自己来说,我成长的速率其实几乎无所谓,反正我每年都在长。第三年的我比第二年的我是个更好的 CEO,第五年的我比第四年更好。可我现在已经是第二十三年了。那个 r,也就是你进步的速度,你确实可以下功夫:请高管教练,把目标写下来,冥想,认真把手上的活儿干好。但当你在它上面挂一个二十三次方,你可以做到世界第一。差别只在于你愿意干多久。

韦弗: 这是最有力量的一项。没有任何障碍能挡住一个对某件事兴奋了十年以上的人。想过不对称的人生,就去做难的事,做属于你的事,并且做上几十年。

2008 年的崩塌

韦弗: 第四条,也是最重要的一条。2008 年,Alpine 终于跑起来了,刚有点起色,砰,被衰退拍平了。是真的拍平,我们的仓位非常不利。后来的事实是,我们整整五年没能募到一支新基金。我把自己的储蓄账户掏空来发工资。我们有七家公司违约,包括当时最大的那一家。

韦弗: 不知怎么回事,就在那段时间,我跟一个叫 GP·福姆的人吃了顿午饭,他是个高管教练。我当时想,高管教练是个什么鬼东西?我完全不知道那是干嘛的。但他极有说服力。他说:我跟你交个底,眼下高管教练这行日子也不好过,所以我刚才推销给你的这套神奇服务,我给你打对折。即便打了对折对我来说仍是一大笔钱,我可是刚把储蓄掏空的人。我至今不知道自己为什么点了头,我真的不知道,但我点了头。于是我请了人生第一位高管教练。直到很久以后我才知道,我请到的大概是世界上最好的教练之一。

韦弗: 我们从手上最大的那家公司谈起,谈它怎么不行了。他问:这里到底出了什么事?你在做什么?进展如何?我说,GP,你过去一年没看新闻吗?市场跌了 50%,雷曼炸了,美林刚被人买走,银行不放贷,我们完蛋了。他说:那听起来你就是无能为力咯,格雷厄姆。然后他就那么看着我。

韦弗: 我说,好吧,那我们怎么办?他说,好,我们来这么办:我们来写一个故事。写这个故事有三条规则。

写故事的三条规则

韦弗: 第一条,故事发生在五年之后。我们要从战争的迷雾里爬出来,你说得没错,你眼下确实看不清鼻子前面六英寸以外的东西,那我们就走远一点,走到五年后。第二条,从极乐处写起。我不想听什么中不溜的东西,我要听最好的情形。如果你知道自己不会失败,你会做什么?也就是洛根说的「神灯目标」。第三条,他说,「怎么做」是一切伟大梦想的杀手。先别管怎么做,我现在一点都不关心怎么做,我只想听那个梦。

韦弗: 事实证明,加上这三条规则,这个练习相当有意思。我可以直接跳到五年后,不必操心怎么实现,还能随便挑我想要的东西。谁不想干这个?

韦弗: 于是我们给那一家公司定了一份计划,就从这一家开始。我们写的大意是:我们要请到你能想象到的世界上最好的 CEO;这位 CEO 会带出一支了不起的团队;我们的技术会比任何人都强,因此系统正常运行时间会更好;我们要组建销售团队,开始一个个把合同拿下来,此前我们是逢标必输;然后我们要开始收购竞争对手,因为他们也在低谷,我们可以做加法。这么写出来相当带劲。

韦弗: 写完我又开始说:写得真好,可我们根本做不到。这也太有抱负了。顺便说一句,「有抱负」这个词是一句委婉话,翻译过来是:这他妈怎么可能做得到。是啊,很有抱负。他说:那么第一步是什么?第一步是招一位 CEO。结果发现,2008 年,衰退当中,正是招 CEO 的好时候。我们花了六个月,请来了最好的那一位,他叫马克·施特劳赫,是我很好的朋友,现在是 Alpine 的合伙人。

韦弗: 他到位之后,我们就照着当初说的一条条做下去:搭团队,做技术,运行时间更好了。马克和他的团队跑起来十八个月后,接下来两年里,那个行业冒出来的每一份合同我们都拿到了,只丢了一份。我们开始把竞争对手一个个踩在脚下。

韦弗: 请注意,我们的行业没有变,市场没有变,竞争对手也没有变。变的是我们。我们只是换了一个故事,我们做的就是这件事。别去写一个「后来发生了什么」的故事,写你自己的故事,然后让它发生。

故事为何会成真

韦弗: 这里面有很多神奇之处。你把你希望发生的事情放到宇宙里去,宇宙就会回应你。这话听着很玄,你们大概心想,得了吧,宇宙回应你。可实际上发生的是什么?实际上发生的是,你给自己戴上了眼罩,只朝你想去的方向看。你开始设定目标,你把每一天都对齐到你想去的地方,你开始吸引那些想去同一个地方的人。所以它确实是宇宙在回应,但它背后也有一套很实在的机制在推动。

韦弗: 那次经历之后,我知道自己摸到了什么东西。我心想,这是魔法,纯粹的魔法。于是我们在 Alpine 开始为所有事情写故事。我们写故事,讲 MBA 毕业之后如何成为 CEO;我们写故事,讲如何建立一种让人愿意在其中度过整个职业生涯的文化,让人觉得自己是重要的,觉得自己的人生有意义、有贡献;我们为一家家公司写故事;我们为项目来源写故事。从那以后,我们写下的几乎每一件事,最后都成真了。

二十年后,乔说你做到了

韦弗: 不久前,我有幸又见到了乔,就是我一开始讲的那个故事里的乔,距那次会面已经二十年了。乔留了下来。有件事我没说:乔当年极为宽厚。我看得出他那样做有多难。他之所以宽厚,是因为他自己早年也吃过苦头,他明白有些事需要时间,而且很难。所以他留了下来,这二十年一直支持我们。

韦弗: 后来乔离开了对冲基金,把余生投入到气候变化上。我们坐下来,一小时的会面,前五十五分钟全在听他讲气候变化,讲他在做的种种事情,他兴奋得快要从椅子上蹦起来。他在做属于他的事。然后,像我们每次见面一样,我把我们的材料和业绩表递给他。乔一直是我们的大投资人,他那个做气候变化的基金会也是我们的投资人。他低头看那张表。

韦弗: 然后他抬起头看着我,说:格雷厄姆,你做到了。二十三年了,你真的做到了,这太了不起了。他说,谢谢你。当年那种会面我开过一遍又一遍,如今这样的会面我也有幸开过一遍又一遍。我会见大学捐赠基金和董事会,他们会当着我的面说:你们帮我们支撑了十年的助学金。另一所大学给我们看,这笔钱将覆盖他们正在盖的楼的很大一块预算。是的,我们的投资人里有人在办癌症基金会,有人在做气候变化的工作。这条路走了很久,但走得很光彩。

韦弗: 我又想起那顿饭上的戴夫,他大概会说:格雷厄姆在买那些破标签印刷厂,还以为自己在改变世界。而我,也许,但愿,真的产生了一点点影响。

韦弗: 那么这对你们意味着什么?你们马上就要毕业了,很多人已经选定了工作和职业方向。无论你处在人生的哪个阶段,哪怕你是今晚坐在这里的一位家长,你都有机会写下你想要的那个故事。你想写什么故事都可以,你要做的只是开始写。想过不对称的人生,就去做难的事,做属于你的事,做上几十年,并且写你自己的故事。

蒙蒂之死

韦弗: 我想用我人生中的一个催化剂来收尾,大概是我最大的一个转折点。我说过我大学划赛艇。我在队里有个外号叫「织梦者」(Dream Weaver),因为我姓 Weaver。朋友们都这么叫我。多好的名字,谁不想当织梦者?

韦弗: 给我起这个名字的人叫蒙蒂·雷泽。我大二那年他大四。像洛根说的,那年我没能进艇,我不算好手,而他好得不得了。但我到今天还能看见那个画面:我走进划船房,蒙蒂就会喊一声「Dream!」我整个人立刻涌上一股劲。这个名字就这么叫开了,所有人都开始叫我 Dream,感觉棒极了。它代表了那时候的我。

韦弗: 我毕业几年后的某天,坐着的时候,一个朋友打电话来说:你先坐下。电话开头是这句,后面从来没有好事。他说:你的朋友蒙蒂走了,他死于一场空难。他二十三岁。

韦弗: 我完全无法处理这个消息,它就是进不到我脑子里。我整个人崩了。但我也没有真的去面对它。于是日子就这么一年一年地过下去。我在那家大公司上班,而我身上的某一部分,就是蒙蒂在我身上发现的那个织梦者,已经彻底不见了。

韦弗: 大概就在那段时间,我还在那家大型私募公司,我飞去纽约,和几个当年跟蒙蒂一起划船的同伴吃了顿饭。我们聊了一整夜。我想我们所有人都需要消化那件事,而我们谁都没有真正消化过。我们聊了整晚,喝着酒,讲蒙蒂的故事,几乎讲到天亮。那一夜很好,我们太需要它了,我们需要把这团东西清出来,需要面对我们失去了什么。

韦弗: 第二天我上飞机回家,然后就崩溃了。是那种很大的飞机,一排是两个座、五个座、再两个座。我坐在中间那五个座里,不是正当中,是偏一个,我在那儿嚎啕大哭。左右两边的人都想帮我,问我有没有事,空乘不停给我端水,我说我没事没事。我哭了三个小时,停不下来,而且我也累坏了,一夜没睡从来都帮不上忙。

韦弗: 后来我总算收拾了一下自己,去洗手间拿凉水拍了拍脸,那时飞机已经飞了三个小时。我回到座位坐下,闭上眼睛,脑子里还是那个画面:我走进更衣室,蒙蒂喊一声「Dream」。

韦弗: 我记得当时想的是:蒙蒂现在要是看见我,会有多失望。我离他当年认定的那个织梦者太远了,那个人我已经好多年没见过了。接着我开始想:我到底在干什么?我在为下行而打,我在拼命护住下行。可你猜怎么着,我刚刚亲眼见过了终极的下行,那是我的朋友。说到底,损失和下行根本不可能被彻底防住。所以我对自己说:从这一刻起,我要为上行而打。我要把局做大。从那一刻起我就这么做了。

韦弗: 我当场下了一个决定:我这辈子再也不说「不是我」或者「不是现在」。这两句话我再也不说了。落地那晚,我结束了当时的一段感情。第二天我走进公司,交了辞呈,放弃了我在那家公司攒下的股权、奖金、所有东西,我没有任何收入来源。又过了几天,我把车装满,一路开到科罗拉多的斯廷博特斯普林斯,我高中时的女朋友辛迪住在那里。她今晚也在现场,她已经做了我二十一年的妻子。

韦弗: 那趟航班之后的二十三年里,我再也没有说过「不是我」「不是现在」,一次都没有。这段日子非常了不起,但正如我们说过的,它并不轻松。

恐惧的伪装

韦弗: 回到你们身上。毕业之后,以及在你们往后的人生里,对大多数人来说,真正最大的障碍,归根到底是恐惧。而恐惧极善操纵,它以各种各样的面目出现,它总在伪装自己。

韦弗: 它伪装成「我这是务实」:我现在只是在讲实际。它伪装成「我这是在帮你」。它伪装成「我这是在救你」。而它最常用的伪装,是「不是我」「不是现在」。

韦弗: 我今天给你们的,是恐惧的解药,这就是我的目的。我们讲的这四条,是你们一生中可以实实在在拿来用的办法,让你能直视恐惧的眼睛,对它说:今天不行。今天我要把局做大,今天我要过这种不对称的人生。

韦弗: 现在就是去做难事的时候。此刻有一件事你在害怕,那正是你该去的地方,那件事你就该去做。此刻有一件事你在拖着,那件事你就该去做。你想要的一切,都在「先变糟」的另一边。

韦弗: 现在就是去做属于你的事的时候。苦是免不了的,你一定会受苦,那就挑一件值得为它受苦的事。而且要明白,你低估了全功率状态下的自己:当你为一件事真正兴奋起来的时候,那份能量根本没有进入你的计算。

韦弗: 把它做上几十年,因为一个人为一件事兴奋十年,是没有上限的。没有任何障碍能挡住一个对某件事兴奋了十年的人。

韦弗: 最后,写你自己的故事。无论你从哪里起步,无论毕业后你担任什么角色,无论你此刻身在何处,都不重要。你今天就可以开始写你的故事。你的身体里有魔法,你有你自己的人生,你身上有某种只属于你的东西。真正需要回答的问题只有一个:你愿不愿意允许自己去过那种人生,去把那样东西放出来?从今往后,这是你会一遍又一遍回答的问题。你愿不愿意给自己这个许可?你需要的就是这个许可。

韦弗: 2023 届的同学们,我们到这儿了。2023 届,你们马上就要从斯坦福他妈的商学院毕业了,斯坦福他妈的商学院。你们走这么远,不是为了把局做小的。你们走这么远,是为了推动这个世界的。现在正是时候,现在是属于你们的时候。非常感谢。

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章节 · 点击跳转视频
0:00 29 层楼上最糟的一天 ▶ 正在看
2:10 从「不要亏钱」到不对称性 ▶ 正在看
4:45 原则一:去做难的事 ▶ 正在看
6:55 任何改变都会先变糟 ▶ 正在看
8:57 原则二:做属于你的事 ▶ 正在看
10:59 晚宴上的戴夫与期望值盲区 ▶ 正在看
13:31 原则三:把 n 做到几十年 ▶ 正在看
15:52 2008 崩塌与第一位高管教练 ▶ 正在看
18:18 写故事的三条规则 ▶ 正在看
19:52 故事成真背后的机制 ▶ 正在看
21:31 二十年后,Joe 说你做到了 ▶ 正在看
24:38 Monty 之死与恐惧的伪装 ▶ 正在看
本期小问 · 档案清单
—— 什么是「好的生活」? ▶ 正在看
—— 知道了,为什么还是做不到? ▶ 正在看
—— 伟大的事业从哪来? ▶ 正在看
—— 人的意义感从哪里来? ▶ 正在看
本期讲者
格雷厄姆·韦弗私募股权公司 Alpine Investors 创始人兼 CEO,2001 年创立,专注软件与服务业企业收购,以「培养 MBA 成为 CEO」的人才策略著称。同时在斯坦福商学院任教,讲授关于成长型企业管理与个人生涯选择的课程。
Logan斯坦福商学院学生主持人,负责本场 Last Lecture 的开场介绍,讲者多次回引其提到的赛艇选拔与「神灯目标」等说法。
0129 层楼上最糟的一天
0:00
[CROSSTALK] Change the world. [MUSIC] >> [APPLAUSE] >> 20 years ago, I'm in this meeting. I mean, there's this huge conference table that seats 20 people and I'm the only one there. I'm in the 29th floor in the financial district. There's this window I can see the entire bay and Alcatraz and everything. And again, I'm about your age at this time. It's a conference room of my largest investor. This guy, I'll call him Joe, and Joe is this bigger-than-life person hedge fund, magnet, household name. And I'm sitting there and I am petrified.
[交谈声] 改变世界。[音乐] >> [掌声] >> 20年前,我坐在一场会议里。我是说,那是一张能坐20个人的巨大会议桌,而当时只有我一个人在那儿。我在金融区的第29层楼。有一扇窗,我能看到整个海湾、恶魔岛,还有所有的一切。再说一次,我当时差不多就是你们现在这个年纪。那是我最大的投资人的会议室。这个人,我就叫他Joe吧,Joe是个传奇般的人物,对冲基金大佬,家喻户晓的名字。我坐在那儿,吓得动弹不得。
便签笔记
0:47
I am shaking and my throat is dry and I can hear Joe walking toward me, and then I hear the knob turn and he walks in as he always did just huge personality, Graham, he's all excited. And I'm sitting there and he sits down and he can see something's really wrong. I tell Joe that his investment in my firm is down 50%. He's lost half his money. And it wasn't his firm's money, it was his personal money. And I can just see the energy drain out of them. And the worst part is he's trying so hard to be positive because he knows if he says the wrong thing, he's just going to crush me because I was so fragile and he's my largest investor.
我浑身发抖,喉咙发干,我能听见Joe朝我走过来,然后我听见门把手转动,他走了进来,还是一如既往地个性张扬,Graham,他特别兴奋。我坐在那儿,他坐下来,一眼就看出出大事了。我告诉Joe,他在我基金里的投资跌了50%。他损失了一半的钱。而且那不是他公司的钱,那是他自己的私人资金。我眼看着他整个人的精气神都被抽干了。最难受的是,他还拼命想表现得积极一点,因为他知道如果说错一句话,就会彻底把我压垮,因为我当时太脆弱了,而他是我最大的投资人。
便签笔记
1:37
I had been told no by over a hundred people raising my first fund and there were about five or six people like Joe who said yes not because I had any track record because I didn't. Because he believed that me, just me, he was investing in Gramm Weaver and that's what I had to show for him. I get i lost half his money. And it was the worst day of my career at that point and even to this day. The thing that I thought I knew about investing back then it was all wrong. What I thought I knew at the time was rule one, don't lose money.
我为募集第一支基金被一百多人拒绝过,只有大概五六个人像Joe一样答应了,不是因为我有什么过往业绩,因为我根本没有。而是因为他相信我这个人,就是相信我本人,他投的是Graham Weaver,那就是我能拿得出手的全部。而我把他一半的钱亏掉了。那是我职业生涯里最糟糕的一天,直到今天都是。我当时自以为懂的那些关于投资的道理,全都是错的。我当时以为自己懂的是:第一条,不要亏钱。
便签笔记
02从「不要亏钱」到不对称性
2:10
And rule two, never forget rule one. So I spent all that time just playing small, just trying to protect my downside, trying not to lose really hard. So we bought businesses at a discount to their net asset value. And even when things went right, it didn't go that right. But there were three times I wrote literally in an investment memo that it is mathematically impossible to lose money on this investment. And we lost money all three times. [LAUGH] So [LAUGH] what I learned is that, is kind of imagine you start dating.
第二条,永远不要忘记第一条。所以我把所有时间都花在小打小闹上,只想着保护下行风险,拼了命地不去亏钱。于是我们以低于净资产价值的折扣去收购企业。可就算事情进展顺利,结果也没有那么理想。但有三次,我真的在投资备忘录里白纸黑字写着:在数学上不可能亏钱的,就是这笔投资。结果那三次我们都亏了钱。[笑] 所以[笑]我学到的是,你可以想象一下你开始约会。
便签笔记
2:44
And your only purpose of dating is not get your heart broken. And you're going to have one foot in and one foot out. And even if you have good data, it's not going to be that great because you're not really in it. But the more likely outcome is you're going to guarantee the very outcome you're trying to avoid, which is you're going to get your heart broken. And so I started deciding, over the next 30 years, I started realizing that that was 180 degrees from what I should be doing in investing. That no matter what you do in this life, if you're going to invest, there's going to be downside.
而你约会的唯一目的,就是不要让自己心碎。于是你会一只脚踏进去,另一只脚留在外面。就算你拿到了不错的数据,效果也不会太好,因为你并没有真正投入。但更可能的结果是,你恰恰保证了你最想避免的那个结局发生,那就是你还是会心碎。所以在接下来的三十年里,我开始意识到,那和我在投资里应该做的事完全相反,整整差了180度。那就是,无论你这辈子做什么,只要你要投资,就一定会有下行风险。
便签笔记
3:15
You're never going to get that to zero. You can reduce it maybe a little bit but the more valuable part and the magic is what can you do on the upside. When it goes right, and in class, I write assume success. What happens if things go well? In 30 years of being a professional investor, I can summarize great investing in a single word, which is asymmetry. And you are looking for the biggest possible outcome relative to your risk. And your risk typically is just losing one times your money. That's all you're going to lose.
你永远不可能把它降到零。你也许能稍微降低一点,但更有价值、更神奇的部分在于:你在上行空间能做到什么。当一切顺利的时候——在课堂上我会写:假设成功。如果事情进展顺利,会发生什么?做了三十年职业投资人,我可以用一个词总结伟大的投资,那就是:不对称性。你要找的是,相对于你承担的风险,可能出现的最大回报。而你的风险通常只是亏掉一倍本金。你最多也就亏这么多。
便签笔记
3:45
So you want to be stacking criteria on top of each other where it becomes asymmetric? So, for example, if you have the criteria of an amazing management team that is going to work super hard and hire well and they're going to be in this industry that's got infinite capacity, they can redeploy capital at high rates of return. And you can hold it for 10 years and you want to keep going and you stack those on top of each other. They don't stack linearly, they stack logarithmically and you can have an almost infinite outcome.
所以你要把一个个标准层层叠加,让它变得不对称,对吧?比如说,如果你的标准是:一支了不起的管理团队,他们会拼命工作、会招到优秀的人,而且他们所处的行业容量无限,他们能以很高的回报率不断把资本再投进去。而你可以持有十年,并且还想继续持有——你把这些标准一层层叠加起来。它们不是线性叠加的,而是对数式叠加,最终可以带来近乎无限的结果。
便签笔记
4:14
You're not playing for one and a half or two times your money as we were in the early days. You can be playing for 10, 20, 50, a hundred times your money with that criteria. And you don't have to do many of those investments in your life. So as I started realizing that this was how I was living my life investing, it also was how I was living my personal life. And I was just playing small. I was playing not to lose. I was just trying not to lose. And so what I'm going to share with you today is how to live an asymmetric life.
你追求的不再是一倍半或两倍的回报,像我们早年那样。有了这样的标准,你追求的可以是10倍、20倍、50倍、100倍的回报。而这样的投资,你一辈子并不需要做很多次。所以当我开始意识到,这就是我在投资中生活的方式时,我发现我的个人生活也是同一套模式。我当时只是在小打小闹。我是为了不输而战。我只是在努力不要输。所以今天我要和大家分享的,是如何过一种非对称的人生。
便签笔记
03原则一:去做难的事
4:45
And there are four principles, and if you get one of these principles right, you will dramatically improve your life. If you get two or three right, you'll have this magical incredible life. But if you can run the table on all four, you can have literally an infinite life, you can have almost anything that you want. And you can live with joy and you can have energy, and you can sustain it for decades and I can tell you this from experience. Principle one is do hard things. So we have this view, we have this thought that life is supposed to be easy.
这里有四条原则,只要你做对其中一条,你的生活就会有巨大的改善。如果你做对两三条,你会拥有一段神奇而不可思议的人生。但如果你能把这四条全部做到,你的人生可以说是无限的,你几乎可以得到任何你想要的东西。你可以活得快乐,充满能量,而且能持续几十年,这一点我可以凭经验告诉你。第一条原则是:做难的事。我们有这样一种看法,我们会觉得人生本该是轻松的。
便签笔记
5:20
And that comfort is where we're going to gain happiness. So you can order harmony bowl from SweetGreens on your app. You can binge-watch succession and Ted Lasso and you can have a life of ease, and that will give you a quick hit of dopamine. But make no mistake, that is not the path. It is exactly the opposite. I road crew in college and the way you measure progress in rowing and the way you determine what boat you're going to is, as Logan was saying is you have an earth test. You sit on a rowing machine, you row 2000 meters as hard as you can.
觉得舒适才是我们获得幸福的地方。所以你可以用手机应用在 SweetGreens 上点一份 harmony bowl。你可以刷完《继承之战》和《足球教练》,过上安逸的生活,那会给你带来一次短暂的多巴胺刺激。但别搞错了,那不是正确的道路。恰恰相反。我大学时是划艇队的,划船里衡量进步、决定你能进哪条艇的方式,就像Logan刚才说的是要做体能测试。你坐上划船机,尽全力划2000米。
便签笔记
5:54
And the saying is if you get done with better tests, and you can pull one more stroke, you didn't pull hard enough. So it's going to hurt no matter what you do, it's going to hurt. Well, throughout the course of the season, the day that I'd show up, which would be like September 1st, from that date all the way through March, I would improve my time by 20 seconds roughly. From the first day that was all conditioning, everything we do. So a big part of that would be rowing, stadium stairs, we're lifting weights, and on and on.
有句话是这么说的:如果你测完之后还能再多划一桨,那就说明你没拼尽全力。所以不管你怎么做,都会很痛苦,一定会很痛苦。那么在整个赛季里,从我报到的那天,大概是9月1号,从那天一直到第二年3月,我的成绩大概能提高20秒。从第一天开始,全都是体能训练,我们做的每件事都是。所以其中很大一部分是划船、跑看台台阶、举铁,等等等等。
便签笔记
6:24
It was grueling and it was a lot. But all that stuff I just said would take about six months and only 10 seconds of that 20 would come from that. The other 10 seconds would come in the first two weeks. You like what? So what happened in the first two weeks it could be 10 seconds. I'll tell you what didn't happen. You didn't change your cardiovascular fitness you didn't change your strength, you didn't change your VO2 max, or your technique, all you changed is your comfort to be uncomfortable. You realize that you could push yourself a lot harder than you thought you could.
那非常折磨人,量也特别大。但我刚说的所有这些,要花大概六个月,而这20秒里只有10秒是靠这些练出来的。另外那10秒,是在头两个星期就拿到的。你会想,什么?所以头两周发生了什么?可能就快了 10 秒。我可以告诉你什么没发生。你的心肺能力没变,你的力量也没变,你的最大摄氧量没变,技术也没变,唯一变的是你对难受的接受程度。你意识到自己其实能比原来以为的更狠地逼自己一把。
便签笔记
04任何改变都会先变糟
6:55
That's all that changed, that was half of the gains that would get all year would just be me reminding myself that I had a lot more than I thought I did. And then it's 750 meters, when my heart rates 175 beats a minute, I can keep going. This chart right here shows our lives and this is what happens. We get kind of complacent or we or we get comfortable and if we want to move forward and get to the next peak, the magic is to understand that your life is almost always going to get worse first. Any change that you want to make is almost always going to get worse first.
变的就只有这个,而这就占了我一整年进步的一半——只是不断提醒自己,我的潜力比我以为的大得多。比我想的要多得多。然后到了 750 米,我的心率是每分钟 175 次,我可以继续讲下去。这张图表展示的就是我们的人生,而实际情况就是这样。我们会变得有点自满,或者说太安逸了。如果你想往前走、登上下一个高峰,关键就在于要明白,你的生活几乎总是会先变得更糟。你想做的任何改变,几乎都会先让情况变得更糟。
便签笔记
7:34
So you're in a relationship and you have to have a hard conversation, that particular night your life is going to get a little worse. And then you're going to come out the other end, and it's going to get better. Or if you need to leave a relationship that you shouldn't be in first place, your life is going to get worse first. If you want to change careers, and you want to learn something new, you going to go down a learning curve. Your salary is probably going to go down, you going to not be good at your job when you first start, your life's going to get worse first.
比如你处在一段感情里,你必须进行一次艰难的对话,那天晚上,你的生活就会变得糟一点。然后你会从另一头走出来,情况会开始变好。或者,如果你需要结束一段本来就不该开始的关系,你的生活会先变得更糟。如果你想转行,想学点新东西,你就得走一遍学习曲线。你的薪水多半会下降,刚开始你在新工作上也不会做得好,你的生活会先变糟。
便签笔记
7:57
You want to start a new habit. You want to take a cold shower, you want to meditate, you want to start exercising, it's going to get worse first. And you're going to follow this pattern, but you need to realize that the thing that's keeping you there is the first move is always going to be worse. And eventually, what's going to happen is these downward curves are going to get a lot shallower. Because you know what the biggest part of that curve is? It's just fear, the biggest part of that curve is just fear.
你想养成一个新习惯。你想洗冷水澡,想冥想,想开始健身,一开始都会先变糟。你会不断重复这个模式,但你得意识到,让你停在原地的,就是第一步永远会是更糟的。而最终会发生的是,这些下滑的曲线会变得越来越平缓。因为你知道那条曲线里最大的一部分是什么吗?就是恐惧,那条曲线里最大的一部分不过是恐惧。
便签笔记
8:28
So the more you put yourself in situations where you do hard things, the shallow and shallower those divots are going to get because you're going to remove that fear just like I mentioned in the rowing example. I had no fear at 2,000 meters, or at 1,500 meters, everything that you want in this life is on the other side of worse first. If you want to have an asymmetric life, do hard things.
所以你越是把自己放到要做难事的情境里,那些下陷就会越来越浅,因为你会消除那份恐惧,就像我刚才讲的划船那个例子一样。在2000米高空我毫无恐惧,在1500米高空也是,你这辈子想要的一切,都在先经历更糟的那一头。如果你想要一段不对称的人生,就去做难的事。
便签笔记
05原则二:做属于你的事
8:57
Second principle, if you want to have an asymmetric life, do your thing. When I graduated from school, probably like many of you, I had a choice to make, there were basically two options. There was a firm that came to recruit on campus, and I knew I could do it, it was what I did before business school, it was a big private equity firm. There was a number of my classmates went with me, there was a salary and a bonus and free lunches, and it was really clear. And then there was another path which is I'd done these, as Logan said, I'd started doing this crazy stuff in business school with buying companies on my credit cards.
第二个原则,如果你想要一段不对称的人生,就去做属于你自己的事。我毕业的时候,可能和你们很多人一样,我面临一个选择,基本上有两个选项。有一家公司来学校招聘,我知道这活儿我干得来,因为读商学院之前我就是干这个的,那是一家很大的私募股权公司。我不少同学都和我一起去了,有薪水、有奖金、有免费午餐,一切都清清楚楚。然后还有另一条路,就是我做过的那些事,正如Logan刚才说的,我在商学院的时候就开始干一些疯狂的事,用信用卡去收购公司。
便签笔记
9:33
And I was like, I don't even know how that's going to work, I don't know what that looks like, I don't know how to get started, I don't know how to raise money, whatever. So I chose the path of going to the big firm. Let me tell you what happened during that time. My boss is like, here's what you need to do to be vice president, here's your goalposts. So, I'm going to sprint like hell to those goalposts as fast as I can, as all of you are, right? because you're competitive and you want to go there.
我当时想,我根本不知道这条路怎么走得通,不知道它会是什么样子,不知道怎么开始,也不知道怎么融资,反正就是各种不知道。所以我选了去大公司那条路。我来告诉你们那段时间发生了什么。我老板说,你想当上副总裁就得做到这些,这就是你的目标线。于是我就拼了命地朝那些目标线冲刺,你们所有人都会这样,对吧?因为你们好胜,你们想冲到那儿去。
便签笔记
9:58
So I got on early flights and would start bidding on businesses and they'd tell me which companies to go to and I would do those, and I threw myself in with everything that I had. And if I had kids at the time, I would have been home late and I would have missed little league games. And the thing is, Buddha figured out something 2,800 years ago. The first principle of Buddhism, which is called dukkha, which is that there's going to be suffering, either way. There's no easy path, there's no safe path, there's no path of ease.
所以我赶最早的航班,开始去竞标各种生意,他们让我去看哪些公司我就去看哪些,我把全部的自己都投了进去。如果我那时候有孩子,我肯定会很晚才回家,会错过孩子的少年棒球赛。问题在于,佛陀在2800年前就想明白了一件事。佛教的第一条原则,叫做「苦」(dukkha),意思是无论如何都会有苦,两条路都一样。没有轻松的路,没有安全的路,没有不费力的路。
便签笔记
10:33
There's no path that's going to be, that's going to make everything right. You're going to suffer either way, I'm sorry to be the one to tell you that. >> [LAUGH] >> But I'm 20 years out of school and it's the truest thing I'm probably going to say today. Life is suffering, and so choose something worth suffering for.
没有哪条路能让一切都变得妥当。无论怎么选你都会受苦,很抱歉由我来告诉你这个事实。>> [笑声] >> 但我毕业已经20年了,这大概是我今天要讲的最真实的一句话。人生皆苦,所以要选一件值得为之受苦的事。
便签笔记
06晚宴上的戴夫与期望值盲区
10:59
The other thing you're missing in this equation is you're going to do an expected value calculation, right? But there's one thing you're not factoring into that equation, which is you're not factoring in you when you're turned on. I went to this dinner in New York, and it was a bunch of other private, it was ridiculous this dinner. There's a whole bunch of private equity people there. And we go to this restaurant in New York, it's one of those restaurants that has the ice and the fish's heads are in the ice.
这道题里你还漏掉了一点,你会去做一个期望值的计算,对吧?但有一件事你没算进这个等式里,那就是你没把"被点燃的你"算进去。我去纽约参加了一场晚宴,一堆人都是搞私募的,那场晚宴简直离谱。现场全是一大帮做私募股权的人。我们去了纽约的一家餐厅,就是那种把冰摆出来、鱼头都插在冰里的餐厅。
便签笔记
11:25
And you can go up you point to the fish that you want. And for the privilege of doing that, you pay four times more for the same fish, but they're in the ice. And then we had a reservation at 8 o'clock at night. And then even with a reservation, we still can get seated till like 9:15 which is like my bedtime typically. And then we're at the dinner and this one woman comes in with a driver and everything and she's from the Hamptons. If I had a counter, she said the words Hamptons probably 13 times at dinner.
你可以走过去,指着你想要的那条鱼。而为了享有这个特权,同样的鱼你要多付四倍的钱,只因为它们摆在冰里。然后我们订的是晚上八点的位子。结果就算订了位,我们还是等到九点一刻才坐下,那基本上已经是我平时的睡觉时间了。然后吃饭的时候,有个女的进来,专车司机什么都有,她是从汉普顿来的。要是我拿个计数器数,她那顿饭大概说了十三次"汉普顿"。
便签笔记
11:54
>> [LAUGH] >> I was like, just out of curiosity, do you happen to have a place in the Hamptons because I'm kind of confused. >> [LAUGH] >> But there's this one guy there, Dave, okay? And Dave is in the same business, he's in the same role as me, he's at a competing firm. And Dave starts going off, Dave is like, I just won this deal, you won't believe this. Here's what happened, this is what we did on the debt covenants. We didn't step them down, we had the debt to EBITDA that didn't step down for two quarters, we're going to save 50 basis points on our interest.
>> [笑] >> 我当时就想,纯属好奇啊,你该不会在汉普顿有套房子吧?我有点搞不清楚了。>> [笑] >> 但那儿还有个男的,叫戴夫,好吧?戴夫跟我做的是同一行,职位也跟我一样,他在一家竞争对手的公司。然后戴夫就开始滔滔不绝,戴夫说,我刚拿下一单,你绝对不敢相信。事情是这样的,我们在债务条款上是这么干的。我们没让它逐级下调,我们把债务与EBITDA的比率两个季度都没往下调,这样我们的利息能省下50个基点。
便签笔记
12:26
And we use pro forma adjusted trailing 12 months yesterday EBITDA times 365. Therefore we're getting extra quarter of return a debt and that's going to help our, and he's going on and on and on. And I'm thinking, Dave thinks he's colonizing Mars, he's so excited about this, >> [LAUGH] >> In his head he's colonizing Mars and I'm thinking to myself two things. I'm thinking first, Dave is going to kick my ass- >> [LAUGH] >> Because I don't care at all- >> [LAUGH] >> About any of this stuff. And the other thing I realized is that this is what Dave had written his business school essay about.
我们还用了备考调整后的过去12个月EBITDA乘以365。所以我们能多拿一个季度的债务回报,这会帮我们……他就这样一直讲一直讲。我心里想,戴夫觉得自己是在殖民火星啊,他为这事激动成这样,>> [笑] >> 在他脑子里他就是在殖民火星,而我心里在想两件事。我先是在想,戴夫非得揍我一顿不可——>> [笑] >> 因为我一点都不在乎——>> [笑] >> 这些破事。一丁点都不在乎。我意识到的另一件事是,这就是戴夫当年商学院申请文书里写的东西。
便签笔记
13:06
He was living it, he was doing the thing that he wanted to be doing. And you're not going to win doing someone else's dream, you can survive for a little while, but you're not going to win. If you want to live an asymmetric life, do hard things, and do your thing.
他正在把它活出来,他正在做他一直想做的事。而你靠着别人的梦想是赢不了的,你可以撑上一阵子,但你赢不了。如果你想过一种不对称的人生,就去做难的事,做属于你自己的事。
便签笔记
07原则三:把 n 做到几十年
13:31
The third principle is do it for decades. And this is one that probably a lot of people don't want to hear. So I have conversations with a lot of you and the conversation will go something like this. My roommate's sister's friend Megan is trading Dogecoin and made $2 million and that could have been me, because I just wasn't in the right place at the right time. And her friend Kristen is day trading Bored Ape NFTs and makes $30,000 of passive income and all this stuff, right? And that could have been you if you were just in the right place, but you're all behind, you're not there yet, you're way behind where you should be.
第三条原则是:坚持做几十年。这一条可能是很多人不太想听的。我和你们中的很多人聊过,对话往往是这样的。我室友的姐姐的朋友 Megan 在炒狗狗币,赚了 200 万美元,那本来也可能是我,只是我没有在对的时间出现在对的地方。还有她朋友 Kristen 在做无聊猿 NFT 的日内交易,每年赚 3 万美元的被动收入,诸如此类,对吧?如果你当时刚好在对的地方,那也可能是你,可你落后了,你还没到那一步,你远远落后于你本该达到的位置。
便签笔记
14:13
And I thought that same thing when I was here. When I was here, it was Internet 1.0, B to C, like petfood.com. My classmates all went into that and Dave at that dinner had asked me, although Dave was not a good conversationist, so he never asked me but had- >> [LAUGH]. >> Had Dave asked me about what I was excited about, I would have talked about building this little label business. I would have talked about the culture we were trying to build at this company. I would have talked about how we punch way above our weight and we hired this person for his attributes and no one thought of this and we pull him from this public company and then we were putting lean manufacturing in the plan.
我当年在这里读书的时候,也是这么想的。我在这儿的时候是互联网 1.0 时代,做 B 到 C 的,比如 petfood.com。我的同学们全都进了那个行业。那次晚餐上 Dave 问我——虽然 Dave 并不是个善于聊天的人,所以他其实从没问过我,但如果他——>> [笑]。>> 如果 Dave 当时问我最让我兴奋的是什么,我会跟他聊我在做的这个小小的标签生意。我会聊我们想在这家公司里打造的文化。我会聊我们如何以小博大,我们看中某个人的特质就把他招进来,没人想到过这一点,我们把他从某家上市公司挖了过来,然后我们把精益生产引入了工厂。
便签笔记
14:45
We're building a culture where people wanted to stay and spend their lives and we're training people from high school to be press operators [SOUND]. And Dave would have been like, Frank thinks he's freaking changing the world, with this little label business. >> [LAUGH] >> So, what we didn't factor in at the time was I was willing to just keep going because I loved it. If you think of the equation for returns, it's 1 plus r to the n, n is quadratic. The n is the number of years you compound, that's the most powerful part of the equation is n.
我们在打造一种让人愿意留下来、愿意投入一生的文化,我们从高中就开始培养人才,让他们成为印刷机操作员 [声响]。而 Dave 大概会想:Frank 觉得他靠这个小小的标签生意就能改变世界。>> [笑] >> 所以,我们当时没算进去的是:我愿意一直做下去,因为我热爱它。如果你想想回报的公式,就是 (1 + r) 的 n 次方,n 是指数级的。n 是你复利累积的年数,这个公式里最有力量的部分就是 n。
便签笔记
15:20
And so, if you think of me, my rate of growth, it almost doesn't matter. I'm growing every year. In year three, I'm a better CEO than I was in year two, in year five, I'm better than I was in year four. But I'm in year 23, and if you take that r, which is how fast you're improving, you can work on that r a little bit, executive coaching and writing out your goals, and meditating and trying to work and be good at your job. And now you put a 23 on it, you can be the best in the world, it's just about how long you willing to do it.
所以拿我来说,我的成长速度其实几乎无所谓。我每年都在成长。第三年,我是一个比第二年更好的 CEO;第五年,我比第四年更好。但我现在已经是第 23 年了。你可以在那个 r 上——也就是你进步的速度——下一点功夫,请高管教练、写下你的目标、冥想、努力工作,把本职做好。但现在你把 23 次方加上去,你可以成为世界上最好的,关键只在于你愿意做多久。
便签笔记
082008 崩塌与第一位高管教练
15:52
That's the most powerful factor and there is no obstacle that will not yield to you Excited about something for a decade or longer. If you want to have an asymmetric life, do hard things, do your thing, and do it for decades. The fourth and final point is the most important of all. In 2008, we'd finally got going at Alpine. We're starting to get going and bam, we just got flattened by the recession, I mean flattened, we were not well-positioned. It turned out we wouldn't raise a fund for five years, drained my savings account to make payroll.
这是最有力量的因素,没有任何障碍能扛得住一个人对一件事持续十年甚至更久的热情。如果你想拥有一种不对称的人生,就去做难的事,做你自己的事,并且做上几十年。第四点也是最后一点,是最重要的。2008 年,我们在 Alpine 终于走上了正轨。刚要起步,砰,我们就被经济衰退拍平了,我是说彻底拍平,我们的处境非常不利。结果我们有五年时间都没能募到一支基金,我掏空了自己的储蓄账户来发工资。
便签笔记
16:38
We had seven companies in default, including our largest business was in default at the time. So for some reason, during that time, I had lunch with this guy named GP Form, and he was an executive coach. I was like, what the hell's an executive coach? I had no idea what that even was. But he was super persuasive. [LAUGH] And he's like, hey, let me level with you. It ain't going so great in the executive coaching business right now either. [LAUGH] So I'm going to give you this incredible thing that I just pitched you for half price, [LAUGH] which was still a ton of money for me, which I just drained my savings account.
我们有七家公司违约,包括当时我们最大的那家企业也违约了。不知怎么的,就在那段时间,我和一个叫 GP Form 的人一起吃了顿午饭,他是一位高管教练。我当时想,高管教练是个什么鬼东西?我完全不知道那是什么。但他极其有说服力。[笑] 他说,嘿,我跟你说实话吧。现在高管教练这行也不怎么景气。[笑] 所以我刚跟你推销的这个超棒的东西,我给你打对折 [笑]——但对我来说那仍然是一大笔钱,毕竟我刚把储蓄账户掏空。
便签笔记
17:16
And I don't know why to this day that I said yes, I don't know why, but I did, I said yes. So I hired my first ever executive coach. I would not know it until much later that I actually hired probably one of the best coaches in the world. We start talking about the largest business that we have and how it's not going well. And he's like, well, what's going on here? What are you doing? How's this going? I said, GP, have you not seen the news in the last year? Market's down 50%. Lehman Brothers blew up, Merrill Lynch just got bought.
直到今天我也不知道自己为什么说了「好」,我不知道为什么,但我确实说了「好」。于是我请了人生中第一位高管教练。直到很久以后我才知道,我请到的很可能是世界上最好的教练之一。我们开始聊我们最大的那家企业,聊它经营得多么不顺。他说,那这里出了什么问题?你在做什么?进展怎么样?我说,GP,你过去一年没看新闻吗?市场跌了 50%。雷曼兄弟爆了,美林刚被收购。
便签笔记
17:47
Banks aren't lending, we're toast. He's like, well, it sounds like you're just kind of helpless then, Graham. And then he is like, [SOUND] sorry. He's like, [SOUND]. So I was like, all right, well, what do we do? He's like, all right, here's what we're going to do. We're going to write a story, okay? And there's three rules to writing this story. The first one is, it's going to take place five years from now. We're going to get out of the fog of war, you're right. And you can't look past where you are six inches in front of your face.
银行不放贷了,我们完蛋了。他说,那听起来你就是完全无能为力咯,Graham。然后他说,[声响] 抱歉。他就是 [声响]。于是我说,好吧,那我们该怎么办?他说,好,我们要这么做。我们来写一个故事,好吗?写这个故事有三条规则。第一条是,故事发生在五年之后。我们要跳出战场的迷雾,你说得对。你现在只能看到眼前六英寸的地方。
便签笔记
09写故事的三条规则
18:18
Let's go out five years. The second rule is, let's start with nirvana. I don't want to hear something that's mediocre. I want to hear what would happen. What would you do if you knew you would not fail? Would be your genie goal, as Logan said. And third, he said, the how is the killer of all great dreams. Forget the how, I don't care about the how right now. I just want to hear about the dream. Turns out with those three rules, it's pretty fun exercise. [LAUGH] I get to go out five years. I don't have to worry about how I'm going to do it, and I get to pick anything I want.
那我们就往后看五年。第二条规则是,从极乐世界开始写。我不想听平庸的东西。我想听会发生什么。如果你知道自己不会失败,你会去做什么?就是 Logan 说的那种「神灯目标」。第三,他说,「怎么做」是所有伟大梦想的杀手。忘掉「怎么做」,我现在根本不关心怎么做。我只想听那个梦想。有了这三条规则,这就变成一个挺好玩的练习。[笑] 我可以往后看五年。我不用操心要怎么实现,而且我想要什么就可以选什么。
便签笔记
18:56
Who doesn't want to do that? So we put in place this plan for this one company, we just started with one company. And what we basically said is, all right, we're going to hire this best CEO you could imagine in the world. The CEO is going to build this incredible team. Our technology is going to be better than anyone else. And therefore, we're going to have better uptime, we're going to hire the sales team, we're going to start winning contracts. We've been losing all of them. And then we're going to start buying competitors because they're down too, and we can add on.
谁不想干这种事呢?于是我们为这一家公司制定了这个计划,我们就从一家公司开始。我们基本上说的是,好,我们要请到你能想象到的全世界最好的 CEO。这位 CEO 会打造一支了不起的团队。我们的技术会比任何人都强。因此,我们的正常运行时间会更好,我们会组建销售团队,我们会开始拿下合同。之前这些合同我们全都丢掉了。然后我们会开始收购竞争对手,因为他们也在宕机,我们可以把他们并进来。
便签笔记
19:22
And we had this incredible thing, and that was really fun. And then I started saying, well, that was great, but there's no way we're going to do that. It was just so aspirational. Aspirational, by the way, is a euphemism for, how the hell are we going to do? No way that's going to happen. It was aspirational. She's like, well, what's the first step? First step is hire a CEO. It turns out in 2008, a recession, that's a pretty good time to hire a CEO. We spent six months, and we brought on the best CEO.
我们做出了这么了不起的东西,那真的很有意思。然后我就开始说,嗯,那想法是很棒,但我们绝对不可能做到。那实在是太理想化了。顺便说一句,「理想化」其实是一种委婉说法,意思是:我们到底该他妈怎么做?那根本不可能实现。这是个远大的目标。她说,那第一步是什么?第一步是聘请一位CEO。事实证明,2008年经济衰退期,其实是聘请CEO的好时机。我们花了六个月,招到了最好的CEO。
便签笔记
10故事成真背后的机制
19:52
His name's Mark Strauch. He's a great friend of mine. Now he's a partner at Alpine now. And so we brought him on. We started doing exactly what we talked about. We started building the team, we started building the technology. We've had better uptime. And then when Mark and his team got going after 18 months, we want every single contract that came up in that business for the next two years except one. And we just started stomping on our competitors. And by the way, our industry didn't change, the market didn't change, our competitors didn't change, we changed.
他叫Mark Strauch。他是我的好朋友。现在他是 Alpine 的合伙人。所以我们就把他招进来了。我们开始完全按照之前聊的那样去做。我们开始组建团队,开始搭建技术。我们的系统稳定性更好了。然后 Mark 和他的团队干了 18 个月之后,那段时间业务里出现的每一份合同我们都拿下了,接下来两年里只有一份没拿到。我们开始把竞争对手踩在脚下。顺便说一句,我们的行业没变,市场没变,竞争对手也没变,是我们变了。
便签笔记
20:23
We just changed our story, that's all we did, we changed our story. Don't write a story about what happens, write your story, and then make it happen. And there's so much magic in this. You put out the thing in the universe that you want to happen, and the universe responds. And that sounds like woo, woo, you're like, god, here we go. Universe responds. But what's really happening? What's really happening is, you're putting on blinders to where you want to go. You're making goals, you're aligning your day to where you want to go.
我们只是换了我们的故事,我们做的就这一件事,我们换了我们的故事。别写一个关于已经发生了什么的故事,写下你自己的故事,然后让它成真。这里面有太多神奇的东西了。你把你希望发生的事情放到宇宙里,宇宙就会回应你。听起来很玄乎,你可能会想,天啊,又来了。宇宙会回应你。但实际上发生了什么呢?真正发生的是,你给自己戴上了眼罩,只看向你想去的方向。你设定目标,让你的每一天都朝着你想去的方向对齐。
便签笔记
20:59
You're attracting people that want to go to the same place that you want to go. So it is the universe, but it's actually there's some mechanics behind it too that make it happen. After that experience, I was onto something. I was like, this is magic, pure magic. We started writing stories at Alpine about everything. We wrote stories about how we could have MBAs become CEOs, right, when they graduate. We wrote stories about building cultures where people would want to spend their whole careers, where people could feel like they mattered, and feel like their life had meaning and that they were contributing.
你吸引到的,是那些和你想去同一个地方的人。所以这确实是宇宙的力量,但其实背后也有一些机制在推动它发生。经历过那件事之后,我意识到我找到了门道。我当时想,这就是魔法,纯粹的魔法。我们在 Alpine 开始为每一件事写故事。我们写故事,讲我们如何能让 MBA 毕业生成为 CEO,对吧,在他们毕业的时候。我们写故事,讲如何打造一种让人愿意在这里度过整个职业生涯的文化,让人觉得自己很重要,觉得自己的人生有意义、在做出贡献。
便签笔记
11二十年后,Joe 说你做到了
21:31
We wrote stories about companies. We wrote stories about sourcing. And just pretty much every single thing we ever wrote came true from that point on. I had the privilege of meeting with Joe very recently, from the very first story I told you. And this is 20 years after the first story. And Joe stayed. I didn't tell you, Joe was incredibly gracious. I could tell how hard it was for him to do that. But he was gracious because he too had had some struggles in his early days, and he understood that things take time and that they're hard.
我们写关于公司的故事。我们写关于寻找项目(sourcing)的故事。而且从那时起,我们写下的几乎每一件事,都变成了现实。最近我有幸和 Joe 见了一面,就是我一开始跟你们讲的那个故事里的 Joe。而这已经是第一个故事发生 20 年之后了。Joe 留了下来。我还没跟你们说,Joe 当时特别宽厚。我看得出来,他那么做有多难。但他很宽容,因为他自己早年也经历过一些挣扎,他明白有些事需要时间,而且很艰难。
便签笔记
22:12
So he stayed with us, and he was a supporter of us for the last 20 years. So Joe left the hedge fund, and he devoted his life to climate change. So we sit down, and we had an hour meeting. We spend the first 55 minutes hearing all about climate change and all the stuff he's working on. He's just bouncing off the walls, he's so excited. He was doing his thing. And then as we do every single time that we meet, I give him our deck and our performance sheet. And Joe's been a big investor of ours, and his foundation that does climate change is our investor.
所以他继续跟着我们,过去 20 年里一直支持我们。后来 Joe 离开了对冲基金,把自己的人生投入到了气候变化事业上。于是我们坐下来,开了一个小时的会。前 55 分钟我们都在听他讲气候变化,讲他正在做的所有事情。他兴奋得坐都坐不住,特别激动。他在做他热爱的事。然后,就像我们每次见面一样,我把我们的材料和业绩报表递给他。Joe 一直是我们的重要投资人,他那个做气候变化的基金会也是我们的投资人。
便签笔记
22:47
And he looks at this sheet.
他看着这张纸。
便签笔记
22:56
And he just looked at me and he just said, you know what, Graham, you did it. You did it 23 years later, this is amazing. He said, thank you. And just like back then when I had to have that meeting over and over, I had the privilege of having this meeting over and over. I meet with college endowments and boards that are like, that they will say literally, you've helped us fund ten years of financial aid for our school. Or another university shows us that this is going to go a huge part of the budget toward the buildings that they're building.
然后他就看着我说,你知道吗,Graham,你做到了。23年后你做到了,这太了不起了。他说,谢谢你。就像当年我不得不一遍又一遍地开那些会一样,我很荣幸能一遍又一遍地开这样的会。我和大学捐赠基金以及董事会见面,他们会真的这么说,你帮我们资助了学校十年的助学金。还有一所大学告诉我们,这将成为他们正在建的那些楼的预算里很大的一部分。
便签笔记
23:31
Okay, yeah, we have investors that are running cancer foundations or doing climate change work. And it's been a long ride, but a really glorious one. And I go back to that meeting with Dave who said, Graham's buying these stupid label printing companies and thinks he's changing the world. And I'm maybe having, hopefully, a little bit of an impact. So where does this leave all of you? All of you right now are about to graduate. And a lot of you have chosen jobs and careers, and each of you has an opportunity, no matter where you are in your life, whether you're a parent who's even watching here tonight, you have an opportunity to write the story you want to have.
是的,我们的投资人里有人在运营癌症基金会,有人在做气候变化的工作。这是一段漫长的旅程,但真的非常辉煌。我又想起和Dave的那次会面,他说,Graham在收购这些没劲的标签打印公司,还觉得自己在改变世界。而我也许正在,希望是,产生那么一点点影响。那么这对你们所有人意味着什么呢?你们所有人现在都即将毕业。你们中很多人已经选好了工作和职业,而你们每个人,无论现在处在人生的哪个阶段,都有一个机会,哪怕你是今晚在这里观看的家长,你都有机会去写下你想要的那个故事。
便签笔记
24:18
You can write any story that you want. You just have to start writing it. And if you want to have an asymmetric life, do hard things, do your thing. Do it for decades. And write your story.
你可以写任何你想写的故事。你只需要开始写。如果你想过一种非对称的人生,就去做难的事,做你自己的事。坚持做几十年。然后写下你的故事。
便签笔记
12Monty 之死与恐惧的伪装
24:38
I thought I'd end with catalysts that I had in my life. Probably the biggest turning point. So I wrote crew in college as I mentioned before. I had a nickname in rowing, which was dream weaver, and my last name is Weaver. And so my friends called me Dream Weaver, and what a great name, right, because who doesn't want to be Dream Weaver? So the person who gave me this name was a guy named Monty Razor. And my sophomore year he was a senior, and I didn't make the boat as Logan said. And I wasn't very good, and he was amazing.
我想用我人生中的那些催化剂来做结尾。大概是最大的转折点。我之前提到过,我大学时是划赛艇的。我在赛艇队有个外号,叫Dream Weaver(织梦者),而我的姓是Weaver。所以朋友们都叫我Dream Weaver,多棒的名字,对吧,因为谁不想当Dream Weaver呢?给我起这个名字的人叫Monty Razor。我大二那年他大四,而正如Logan说的,我没能进主力艇。我当时并不怎么样,而他非常出色。
便签笔记
25:16
But anyway, I can still picture, I would walk into the rowing room and Monty would just say, dream like this. And I would just get this surge of energy, and the name just stuck. Everyone started calling me Dream. It was awesome. And it signified who I was back then. Well, a few years after I graduate, I'm sitting down and my friend calls me on the phone and says, hey, you need to sit down. Nothing ever good comes of that first intro and a phone call. And he says, hey, your friend Monty's gone. He was killed in a plane crash.
但不管怎样,我到现在还能想起那个画面,我走进划船训练室,Monty就会说,像这样做梦。我立刻就会涌上一股energy,这个名字就这么叫开了。所有人都开始叫我Dream。太棒了。它代表了当时的我。然而,我毕业几年后,有一天我正坐着,一个朋友打电话给我说,嘿,你先坐下。电话一开头这么说,从来没什么好事。他说,嘿,你朋友Monty走了。他在一次空难中遇难了。
便签笔记
25:51
He was 23. And I was just like, I couldn't even process this information. I was just like, it just couldn't register. I was just devastated. But also, I was kind of just not dealing with it. And so long I go with my life year after year. And as I said, I worked at this firm and a little bit of me was, that dream weaver character that Monty had found in me was nowhere to be seen. And so around that time, right as I was in this large private equity firm, I flew out to New York. And I ended up having dinner with a bunch of our colleagues who had road crew with Monty and we ended up talking all night and I think all of us kind of needed a process what had happened and none of us had really done that.
他才23岁。我当时完全,我根本无法消化这个消息。我就是,脑子里根本反应不过来。我整个人崩溃了。但同时,我也算是一直没去面对它。就这样,我一年又一年地过我的日子。正如我说的,我在那家公司工作,而我身上有一部分,就是Monty在我身上发现的那个Dream Weaver,已经完全不见了踪影。大概就在那个时候,就在我还在那家大型私募股权公司的时候,我飞去了纽约。我最后和一群同事吃了晚饭,他们都曾和Monty一起划过船,我们聊了整整一晚,我想我们所有人都需要消化一下当年发生的事,而我们谁都没有真正做过这件事。
便签笔记
26:40
And so we start talking all night, and we're drinking and we're telling stories about Monty, and this went on pretty much all through the night. And it was awesome, we needed it. We needed basically to kind of clear this out and deal with this loss that we had. So the next day I get on a plane to go home and I just lose it. I'm in one of these huge planes going from San Francisco to New York and it has two seats and then five seats and then two seats. And I'm not right in the middle, I'm one over, but in the middle, and I'm just bawling hysterically.
所以我们开始聊了一整夜,我们一边喝酒一边讲Monty的故事,这基本上持续了一整个晚上。那感觉特别好,我们需要这个。我们基本上是需要把这些东西倾泻出来,去面对我们经历的这场失去。第二天我上了回家的飞机,然后我彻底崩溃了。我坐在一架从旧金山飞纽约的巨型客机上,座位是两个、五个、再两个那样排的。我不在正中间,是偏一个位置,但也算是在中间,我就在那儿歇斯底里地大哭。
便签笔记
27:17
And people on both sides of me are trying to help me and tell me if I'm okay. And the flight attendants keeps bringing me water and I'm like, I'm good at you. And three hours, I could not continue, I was exhausted too. That never helps. I'd stayed up all night. So anyway, finally, I kind of get my act together and I'm going to splash some water in the bathroom. It's like three hours now into the flight. And I sit back down at this point. And I just remember thinking to myself, so I sit back down and I close my eyes and I can kind of still see that visual where Monty says dream when I walk into the locker room.
我两边的人都想帮我,问我还好吗。空乘不停地给我送水,而我就是,我很擅长你。三个小时后,我撑不下去了,我也精疲力尽了。那样从来都没用。我整夜没睡。总之,最后我勉强振作起来,打算去洗手间用水洗把脸。这时候飞机已经飞了大概三个小时了。然后我又坐回座位上。我只记得当时在想,我坐回去,闭上眼睛,脑海里还能浮现出那个画面——蒙蒂在我走进更衣室时说的那个「梦想」。
便签笔记
27:53
And I just remember thinking, Monty would be so disappointed in me right now. I'm so far from the person that he thought was this dream weaver. I haven't seen that person in years. And then I started thinking, what am I doing? What am I doing? I'm playing for this downside. I'm trying to protect the downside. Well, guess what, I just seen the ultimate downside with my friend. And really ultimately, there's no way to totally protect against loss or downside. And so I said from this point on, I'm going to play for the upside.
我只记得当时在想,蒙蒂现在一定会对我非常失望。我离他心目中那个「编织梦想的人」实在太远了。我已经好多年没见过那个自己了。然后我开始想,我到底在干什么?我到底在干什么?我一直在为最坏的结果做打算。我一直想着规避风险、守住底线。可你猜怎么着,我刚刚在我朋友身上见识了最糟糕的结局。而且说到底,你根本没办法完全避免损失或者失败。所以我说,从这一刻起,我要为上限而活。
便签笔记
28:31
I'm just going to go big, and from that point on I did. I made a decision right then that I was never again in my life going to say not me or not now. I was never going to say those words again. So I landed, I ended my relationship that night. The next day I walked in and handed in my resignation at my firm that I'd been working at, that my crude equity and bonus and everything. I didn't have any income coming in. And then a few days later, I packed up my car and drove out to Steamboat Springs Colorado where my ex High school girlfriend, Cindy, was living, who's here, and my wife of 21 years.
我就要放手去搏,而从那一刻起我真的做到了。我当时就下定决心,这辈子再也不说「不是我」或者「不是现在」。我再也不会说那几个字了。所以我一落地,当晚就结束了那段感情。第二天我就走进公司递交了辞呈,放弃了我一直工作的那家公司,我的原始股、奖金,全都放弃了。我没有任何收入来源。然后几天后,我收拾好车,一路开到科罗拉多州的斯廷博特斯普林斯,我高中时的前女友辛迪就住在那儿,她今天也在场,她已经做了我 21 年的妻子。
便签笔记
29:14
>> [APPLAUSE] >> And in 23 years since that plane flight, I've never said again not me, not now, never. And it's been amazing and it hasn't been easy as we've talked about. So, Bringing it back to you all, the biggest thing that you're going to face as you graduate for most of you, and through your lives, the biggest obstacle you really have is going to be fear if you really boil it down. And fear is very manipulative, and it shows up in all these kinds of different ways. And it tries to disguise itself, okay?
>> [掌声] >> 在那次飞行之后的 23 年里,我再也没说过「不是我,不是现在」,一次都没有。这一切都很棒,但正如我们说过的,过程并不轻松。所以,说回你们大家,毕业之后,对你们大多数人来说,在往后的人生中,你们要面对的最大障碍,归根结底其实是恐惧。恐惧非常善于操纵人心,它会以各种各样的形式出现。它还会伪装自己,明白吗?
便签笔记
30:06
It disguises itself as being practical. I'm being practical right now. It disguises itself as I'm helping you. It disguise itself as I'm saving you. And most of all it disguises itself as not me, not now. What I have given you today is the antidote to fear. That's been my goal. The four things that we talked about are ways that you can tangibly and tactically throughout your lives look fear in the eye and say to fear, not today, today I'm going to play big, today I'm going to play this asymmetric life.
它把自己伪装成「务实」。我这是在现实一点。它把自己伪装成「我是在帮你」。它把自己伪装成「我是在救你」。而最常见的是,它把自己伪装成「不是我,不是现在」。我今天给你们的,是恐惧的解药。这一直是我的目标。我们谈到的这四件事,是你们在人生中可以切实运用、真正落地的方法,让你们能直视恐惧,对恐惧说:今天不行,今天我要放开手脚地干,今天我要过这种不对称的人生。
便签笔记
30:48
Now is the time to do hard things. There's something that you fear right now, that's exactly where you should go. You should be doing that thing. There's something you're putting off right now, you should be doing that thing. Everything that you want is on the other side of worse first. Now is the time to do your thing. There is suffering, you will suffer. So pick something worth suffering for. And realize that you are underestimating yourself at your full power when you're excited about something that's not going into your equation.
现在正是去做难事的时候。此刻有件事让你害怕,那恰恰就是你该去的地方。你就应该去做那件事。此刻有件事你一直在拖着不做,你就应该去做那件事。你想要的一切,都在「先变糟」的另一边。现在,正是去做你那件事的时候。痛苦是必然的,你一定会经历痛苦。所以,选一件值得你为之受苦的事。并且要意识到,当你对某件事充满热情时,你其实低估了自己全力以赴的样子,而你并没有把这一点算进去。算进你的方程式里。
便签笔记
31:26
Do it for decades because you excited for a decade knows no bounds. There is no obstacle that will not yield to you excited for a decade. And finally, write your own story. No matter where you're starting and no matter what role you have after school or where you are right now, it doesn't matter. You can start today writing your story. Inside of you, you have magic. You have your own life. You have something that's special for you. And there's really only one question you need to answer, which is are you going to give yourself permission to lead that life, to live that life and to let that out?
坚持做上几十年,因为一个持续兴奋十年的你,是没有上限的。没有什么障碍,能挡住一个兴奋了十年的你。最后,写下属于你自己的故事。无论你从哪里起步,也无论你毕业后从事什么角色、现在身处何处,这些都不重要。你可以从今天就开始书写自己的故事。在你的内心深处,藏着魔力。你拥有自己的人生。你身上有属于你的独特之处。而你真正需要回答的问题只有一个,那就是:你愿不愿意允许自己去追求那样的人生,去过那样的人生,把它释放出来?
便签笔记
32:02
That's the question you're going to answer over and over and over in your life from now on. Are you going to give yourself permission? It's permission you need. So class of 2023, here we are. And class of 2023, you're about to graduate from Stanford Freaking Business School, Stanford Freaking Business School. You did not come this far to play small. You came this far to move the world. Now is the time, now is your time. Thank you so much. >> [APPLAUSE] >> Thank you. [APPLAUSE]
从现在开始,这个问题你将在人生中一遍又一遍地回答。你愿意给自己这个许可吗?你需要的是这份许可。那么,2023 届的同学们,我们走到了这里。2023 届的同学们,你们即将从斯坦福这所了不起的商学院毕业,斯坦福这所了不起的商学院。你们走到今天,不是为了做个小角色。你们走到今天,是为了改变世界。现在就是时候了,现在是属于你们的时刻。非常感谢大家。>> [掌声] >> 谢谢。[掌声]
便签笔记
视频总结 · 一句话概括与核心要点

一句话概括

斯坦福商学院讲师、Alpine Investors 创始人 Graham Weaver 用自己 20 多年投资与创业的失败与翻身经历,论证人生应像优秀投资一样追求"不对称性"——下行最多亏一倍本金,上行却可能无限——并给出四条可执行原则:做难的事、做你自己的事、坚持数十年、写下你自己的故事。

核心要点

  • "不要亏钱"这条投资信条几乎毁了他的早期职业生涯。 20 年前他要向最大投资人(化名 Joe,对冲基金名人,投的是个人资金)当面承认账面亏损 50%。他为募第一支基金被 100 多人拒绝,只有五六个人因为相信"Graham Weaver 这个人"而投钱。他当时的策略是买低于净资产价值的折价生意,处处防守,结果做对了也赚不多;更讽刺的是,他在投资备忘录里三次白纸黑字写"这笔投资在数学上不可能亏钱",三次都亏了。
  • 防守型策略会招来它想避免的结局。 他的类比:如果谈恋爱的唯一目的是不让心碎,你就会一只脚在里面一只脚在外面,即便顺利也谈不深,而更可能的结果是你反而保证了心碎的发生。下行风险永远无法归零,最多略微降低;真正的杠杆在上行。
  • 不对称性来自条件的叠加,而叠加是对数级而非线性的。 例如同时满足:极强且勤奋、会招人的管理层 + 行业容量近乎无限 + 能以高回报率持续再投资 + 你愿意持有十年以上。这类投资的目标不是 1.5 倍或 2 倍,而是 10、20、50、100 倍;而且一生中不需要做很多笔。
  • 原则一"做难的事"有一条被大学赛艇量化过的证据。 他大学划赛艇,赛季从 9 月练到次年 3 月,2000 米测试成绩提升约 20 秒。但其中 10 秒(一半)发生在头两周——那两周里心肺、力量、VO2 max、技术都没变,唯一改变的是对不适的耐受度:他发现自己在心率 175、还剩 750 米时仍能继续。
  • 任何值得做的改变都会"先变差",而那道下坡的主要成分是恐惧。 谈一次难的对话、离开一段不该在的关系、转行、学新技能(薪水下降、上手很烂)、开始冷水澡或冥想——都是先掉下去再爬到更高的峰。反复做难事会让这些凹陷越来越浅,因为恐惧被消耗掉了。"你想要的一切,都在'先变差'的另一边。"
  • 原则二"做你的事":反正都要受苦,不如挑一件值得为之受苦的。 他引用佛教的"苦谛"——没有安全的路、轻松的路,怎么选都会受苦。毕业时他放弃了信用卡收购公司的野路子,去了校招来的大型私募,冲着"当上 VP"的既定球门狂奔、赶早班机、去投标别人指定的公司。
  • 纽约那顿晚饭是转折性的对照实验。 同桌竞争对手 Dave 兴奋地大讲他刚赢的交易细节:债务契约两个季度不下调、省 50 个基点利息、用 pro forma 调整后的 TTM EBITDA 算法多挤出一个季度的回报。Weaver 的两个念头是:一,Dave 会把我打得落花流水,因为我对这些毫不在意;二,Dave 正在过他商学院申请文书里写的那种人生。"你赢不了别人的梦想,你只能勉强撑一阵子。"而他自己真正想聊的是那家小小的标签印刷公司——文化、精益制造、从高中生里培养印刷机操作员。
  • 原则三"做几十年":回报公式 (1+r)^n 里,n 才是最猛的那一项。 r(你每年的进步速度)能靠教练、写目标、冥想优化一点点,但真正的乘数是年数。他每年都在变好——第三年比第二年是更好的 CEO,第五年比第四年更好——而他已经做到第 23 年。"没有任何障碍能扛得住一个人对某件事持续十年以上的热情。"
  • 原则四"写下你的故事"是从 2008 年的废墟里学来的。 那年 Alpine 被衰退打垮:五年募不到新基金,他掏空个人存款发工资,七家公司违约(含最大的那家)。他在存款见底时花高价(对方打了半折)雇了人生第一位高管教练 GP Form。教练的三条写故事规则:一、把时间设在五年后,跳出眼前的战争迷雾;二、从"极乐"起笔,只写"如果你知道不会失败你会做什么";三、"'怎么做'是所有伟大梦想的杀手",暂时不管 how。
  • 那个故事被逐字实现了,而且变量只有他们自己。 故事写的是:招一位世界级 CEO → 他搭起顶级团队 → 技术领先 → 正常运行时间更好 → 组建销售团队开始赢合同 → 趁同行也低迷去收购竞争对手。第一步"招 CEO"在 2008 年衰退期反而是好时机,他们花六个月请来 Mark Strauch(如今是 Alpine 合伙人)。团队跑起来 18 个月后,接下来两年该业务参与竞标的合同,除一个外全部拿下。他强调:行业没变、市场没变、竞争对手没变,变的是他们自己——"我们只是换了一个故事"。
  • "故事吸引宇宙回应"背后有可拆解的机制。 不是玄学:写下故事等于给自己戴上朝向目标的眼罩,把目标拆进日程,并吸引想去同一个地方的人。此后 Alpine 把"写故事"用在一切事上——让 MBA 毕业即当 CEO、建一个人们愿意待一辈子的文化、公司、项目源——他说从那以后写下的几乎每一件都成真了。

结论与值得注意的细节

  • Joe 的结局回扣开头:Joe 当年极力克制、不想压垮这个脆弱的年轻人,因为他自己早年也栽过跟头,懂得事情需要时间。他没有撤资,支持了 20 年。他后来离开对冲基金全职投身气候变化,最近一次会面中前 55 分钟都在兴奋地讲气候工作("他在做他的事"),最后看着业绩表对 Weaver 说:23 年了,你做到了,谢谢。如今 Alpine 的投资人里有大学捐赠基金(相当于为一所学校提供了十年助学金)、癌症基金会、气候机构——这是对当年 Dave 那句"Graham 买几家破标签印刷厂还觉得自己在改变世界"的迟到回应。
  • 真正的催化剂是一场空难和一次机上崩溃。 大学队友 Monty Razor 给了他绰号"Dream Weaver",每次他走进划船房 Monty 都会喊"Dream"。毕业几年后 Monty 在坠机中身亡,年仅 23 岁,他多年没有真正消化这件事。直到在纽约与老队友通宵聊 Monty 之后,次日飞机上他失控痛哭三小时,闭眼时想到"Monty 会对现在的我非常失望",以及——我一直在防守下行,可我刚刚见到了终极的下行,损失本就无法完全防住。他当场决定此生再不说"不是我"或"不是现在"(not me, not now)。落地当晚他结束了当时的恋情,第二天递交辞呈(放弃 carry、奖金和全部收入),几天后开车去了科罗拉多的 Steamboat Springs 找高中女友 Cindy——那位如今结婚 21 年的妻子,当晚就在演讲现场。这个决定至今 23 年未破例。
  • 全篇的统一敌人是恐惧,四条原则被定位为"解药"。 他强调恐惧极善伪装:伪装成"我只是务实"、"我这是在帮你"、"我这是在救你",而最常见的伪装就是"不是我、不是现在"。因此判断标准非常直白:此刻你害怕的那件事、你一直在拖的那件事,正是你该去做的事。
  • 最终落点是"许可"而非"方法"。 他对 2023 届的收尾是:无论你现在处于什么位置、毕业后接了什么岗位,都可以从今天开始写自己的故事;唯一需要反复回答的问题是——你是否给自己许可去过那种人生。"你走到这一步不是为了小打小闹。"
核心句型 · 10
1. the more … the +比较级 …
“The more you put yourself in situations where you do hard things, the shallow and shallower those divots are going to get”
「越……越……」的递进结构,用来表达可重复训练带来的边际变化。仿写时前半句放行为、后半句放结果;口语里常把比较级重复成 shallower and shallower 加强。
2. no matter what / where / who … , …
“No matter what you do in this life, if you're going to invest, there's going to be downside.”
让步状语从句,用于把结论提升为普适命题。演讲中常放在核心论断前,先排除所有例外再下判断,比 although 更有力度。
3. There's no A, there's no B, there's no C.
“There's no easy path, there's no safe path, there's no path of ease.”
三段排比否定,是英文演讲最常见的加重手段。仿写要点:三项语义递进或近义堆叠,句式完全一致,最后一项落在最抽象的那个词上。
4. Everything (that) you want is on the other side of …
“Everything that you want is on the other side of worse first.”
「你想要的一切都在……的另一边」,把抽象代价具象成一道门槛。on the other side of 后面可接 fear / that conversation / one hard year 等名词化短语。
5. What would you do if you knew you would not fail?
“What would you do if you knew you would not fail?”
虚拟条件式提问,用于剥离可行性约束、逼出真实意愿。注意 would + if 从句的过去式搭配;这是教练式对话的经典开场句。
6. Had + 主语 + 过去分词, 主语 would have …
“Had Dave asked me about what I was excited about, I would have talked about building this little label business.”
省略 if 的倒装虚拟语气,书面与正式口语中显得凝练。用于回述「当时若……我本会……」,比 If Dave had asked 更有文学性。
7. There is no X that will not …(双重否定)
“There is no obstacle that will not yield to you excited for a decade.”
用双重否定表达最强肯定:没有任何障碍扛得住。适合放在段落收尾做断言,但一句里最多用一次,多用会显得刻意。
8. X is a euphemism for …
“Aspirational, by the way, is a euphemism for, how the hell are we going to do?”
「X 不过是……的委婉说法」,用于拆穿职场或公共语言的粉饰。仿写时后半句故意换成大白话或粗口,形成落差感。
9. you're going to guarantee the very outcome you're trying to avoid
“You're going to guarantee the very outcome you're trying to avoid, which is you're going to get your heart broken.”
the very + 名词表示「正是那个」;整句是描述自我实现式失败的高效句式,适合用在指出策略悖论时。
10. not because …, but because …
“Not because I had any track record because I didn't. Because he believed that me”
先否定通常理由、再给出真实理由的对比结构。演讲中用它制造轻微反转;书面写作请补全 but,口语里常像原文这样省略。
词汇精讲 · 111 · 按出现顺序
petrified /ˈpetrɪfaɪd/ adj. 0:00
吓呆的,恐惧到僵住;比 scared 程度重得多
bigger-than-life adj. phr. 0:00
比真人还传奇的;形容气场极强、极具存在感的人
household name n. phr. 0:00
家喻户晓的名字(人或品牌)
hedge fund /hedʒ fʌnd/ n. 0:00
对冲基金
knob /nɑːb/ n. 0:47
门把手;旋钮
drain out of v. phr. 0:47
(精力、血色等)从……身上抽干、流失
track record n. phr. 1:37
过往业绩、履历记录;投资语境指历史回报表现
playing small v. phr. 2:10
小打小闹、不敢放开做;全篇的核心反面概念
downside /ˈdaʊnsaɪd/ n. 2:10
下行风险、不利面;金融语境指最大可能亏损
at a discount to prep. phr. 2:10
以低于……的折价(买入)
net asset value n. phr. 2:10
净资产价值(NAV)
investment memo n. phr. 2:10
投资备忘录,投资委员会决策用的分析文件
one foot in and one foot out phr. 2:44
一脚在里一脚在外;半投入、留后路
180 degrees from phr. 2:44
与……完全相反、南辕北辙
the very outcome phr. 2:44
正是那个结果;very 在此为强调用法「恰恰、正是」
asymmetry /eɪˈsɪmətri/ n. 3:15
不对称性;此处指收益上限远大于亏损上限
upside /ˈʌpsaɪd/ n. 3:15
上行空间、潜在收益
stacking criteria v. phr. 3:45
把多项筛选标准层层叠加
redeploy /ˌriːdɪˈplɔɪ/ v. 3:45
重新配置、再投入(资本、人力)
logarithmically /ˌlɔːɡəˈrɪðmɪkli/ adv. 3:45
以对数方式(此处口语化地指非线性放大)
rates of return n. phr. 3:45
回报率
run the table v. phr. 4:45
全盘通吃、一场不落地赢(源自台球)
binge-watch /ˈbɪndʒ wɑːtʃ/ v. 5:20
刷剧、一口气连看多集
a quick hit of dopamine /ˈdoʊpəmiːn/ n. phr. 5:20
一次短暂的多巴胺刺激;hit 此处指「一剂、一下」
make no mistake phr. 5:20
别搞错了、听清楚了;用于强调后续断言
a life of ease n. phr. 5:20
安逸的生活
stroke /stroʊk/ n. 5:54
(划船的)一桨;此处非「中风」义
conditioning /kənˈdɪʃənɪŋ/ n. 5:54
体能训练
grueling /ˈɡruːəlɪŋ/ adj. 6:24
极其艰苦折磨人的
cardiovascular fitness /ˌkɑːrdioʊˈvæskjələr/ n. phr. 6:24
心血管(心肺)耐力水平
VO2 max n. phr. 6:24
最大摄氧量,衡量有氧能力的核心指标
complacent /kəmˈpleɪsnt/ adj. 6:55
自满的、安于现状的(含贬义)
learning curve n. phr. 7:34
学习曲线;go down a learning curve 指经历上手期的低谷
shallower /ˈʃæloʊər/ adj. 7:57
更浅的(此处指曲线下陷幅度更小)
divots /ˈdɪvəts/ n. 8:28
凹坑、被铲起的草皮;此处比喻曲线上的下陷段
private equity n. phr. 8:57
私募股权(PE),收购并经营非上市企业的投资形式
recruit on campus v. phr. 8:57
到校园做招聘(校招)
goalposts /ˈɡoʊlpoʊsts/ n. 9:33
球门柱;引申为考核目标线(move the goalposts 指中途改标准)
sprint like hell v. phr. 9:33
拼命冲刺;like hell 为口语强化语
bidding on /ˈbɪdɪŋ/ v. phr. 9:58
对……出价竞标
little league n. phr. 9:58
少年棒球联盟;美式家庭生活的典型符号
dukkha /ˈdʊkə/ n. 9:58
(佛教)苦、不圆满;四圣谛第一谛
expected value calculation n. phr. 10:59
期望值计算,概率加权后的收益估算
factoring in v. phr. 10:59
把……计入考虑、纳入计算
turned on adj. phr. 10:59
被点燃、处于兴奋投入状态的
for the privilege of prep. phr. 11:25
为了获得……的特权(常带讽刺)
the Hamptons /ðə ˈhæmptənz/ n. 11:25
汉普顿,纽约长岛东端富人度假区
going off v. phr. 11:54
滔滔不绝、激动地讲个不停
debt covenants /ˈkʌvənənts/ n. phr. 11:54
债务契约条款,借款人须遵守的财务约束
step them down v. phr. 11:54
(把杠杆上限)逐期下调收紧
basis points n. phr. 11:54
基点,1 基点=0.01%
pro forma /ˌproʊ ˈfɔːrmə/ adj. 12:26
备考的、模拟测算的(财务报表口径)
trailing 12 months adj. phr. 12:26
过去十二个月的(TTM)
colonizing /ˈkɑːlənaɪzɪŋ/ v. 12:26
殖民、开拓定居;此处化用「火星殖民」的宏大叙事
kick my ass v. phr. 12:26
把我打得落花流水;此处指在竞争中彻底压过我
day trading n. phr. 13:31
日内交易,当天买入卖出
passive income n. phr. 13:31
被动收入
way behind adj. phr. 13:31
远远落后;way 在此为程度强化词
punch way above our weight v. phr. 14:13
以小博大、越级发挥(源自拳击的量级划分)
attributes /ˈætrɪbjuːts/ n. 14:13
特质、禀赋;招聘语境指看重人的品质而非履历
lean manufacturing n. phr. 14:13
精益生产,源自丰田生产体系的减浪费管理法
compound /ˈkɑːmpaʊnd/ v. 14:45
复利累积、逐年叠加增长
quadratic /kwɑːˈdrætɪk/ adj. 14:45
二次的(数学);讲者此处口误,本意为 exponential 指数的
executive coaching n. phr. 15:20
高管教练服务
flattened /ˈflætnd/ v. 15:52
被彻底压垮、拍平(口语强调)
make payroll /ˈpeɪroʊl/ v. phr. 15:52
凑齐发工资的钱;小企业现金流困境的固定说法
in default /dɪˈfɔːlt/ adj. phr. 16:38
处于债务违约状态
level with you v. phr. 16:38
对你说实话、不绕弯子
blew up v. phr. 17:16
(机构)爆掉、崩盘倒闭
toast /toʊst/ adj. 17:47
完蛋了(俚语,we're toast)
fog of war n. phr. 17:47
战争迷雾,指信息不全时的判断失真
nirvana /nɪrˈvɑːnə/ n. 18:18
涅槃、极乐境地;此处指最理想的结局
mediocre /ˌmiːdiˈoʊkər/ adj. 18:18
平庸的、勉强及格的
uptime /ˈʌptaɪm/ n. 18:56
系统正常运行时间(可用率)
add on v. phr. 18:56
并购整合、做加法收购(PE 的 add-on acquisition)
aspirational /ˌæspəˈreɪʃənl/ adj. 19:22
有雄心的、理想化的;企业语境常是委婉说法
euphemism /ˈjuːfəmɪzəm/ n. 19:22
委婉说法
stomping on /ˈstɑːmpɪŋ/ v. phr. 19:52
把……踩在脚下、碾压
putting on blinders /ˈblaɪndərz/ v. phr. 20:23
戴上(马的)眼罩;此处正面用法:屏蔽干扰只看目标
woo woo adj. 20:23
玄乎的、伪灵性的(口语贬义)
onto something phr. 20:59
摸到门道了、有重要发现
gracious /ˈɡreɪʃəs/ adj. 21:31
宽厚有风度的、体谅人的
sourcing /ˈsɔːrsɪŋ/ n. 21:31
(投资)项目寻源,主动发掘收购标的
bouncing off the walls v. phr. 22:12
兴奋得坐不住、上蹿下跳
deck /dek/ n. 22:12
演示材料、PPT(商务口语)
college endowments /ɪnˈdaʊmənts/ n. phr. 22:56
大学捐赠基金,机构投资者的重要类别
financial aid n. phr. 22:56
(学校发放的)助学金、资助
glorious /ˈɡlɔːriəs/ adj. 23:31
辉煌的、精彩之极的
catalysts /ˈkætəlɪsts/ n. 24:38
催化剂;引申为促成剧变的关键事件
sophomore /ˈsɑːfəmɔːr/ n. 24:38
(大学)二年级学生
the name just stuck phr. 25:16
这名字就这么叫开、固定下来了
signified /ˈsɪɡnɪfaɪd/ v. 25:16
标志着、代表着
register /ˈredʒɪstər/ v. 25:51
(信息)被理解吸收;it couldn't register 意为脑子反应不过来
devastated /ˈdevəsteɪtɪd/ adj. 25:51
极度悲痛、被击垮的
nowhere to be seen phr. 25:51
踪影全无
lose it v. phr. 26:40
情绪崩溃、失控(哭或发怒)
bawling hysterically /ˈbɔːlɪŋ hɪˈsterɪkli/ v. phr. 26:40
歇斯底里地嚎啕大哭
get my act together v. phr. 27:17
振作起来、把自己收拾好
handed in my resignation /ˌrezɪɡˈneɪʃn/ v. phr. 28:31
递交辞呈
go big v. phr. 28:31
放开手脚大干、押上大注
boil it down v. phr. 29:14
归结起来、浓缩到本质
manipulative /məˈnɪpjələtɪv/ adj. 29:14
善于操控人心的
antidote /ˈæntidoʊt/ n. 30:06
解药;the antidote to fear 恐惧的解药
tangibly /ˈtændʒəbli/ adv. 30:06
切实地、可触及地
tactically /ˈtæktɪkli/ adv. 30:06
在战术层面地、可操作地
look fear in the eye v. phr. 30:06
直视恐惧、正面迎战
putting off v. phr. 30:48
拖延、推迟不做
underestimating /ˌʌndərˈestɪmeɪtɪŋ/ v. 30:48
低估
knows no bounds phr. 31:26
没有边界、不可限量
give yourself permission v. phr. 31:26
允许自己(去做/去成为);本篇的收尾关键词
move the world v. phr. 32:02
撼动世界、带来根本改变
理解自测 · 11 题
1. 讲者开场讲的「职业生涯最糟的一天」具体发生了什么?其中哪个细节让打击格外沉重?

二十年前,他在旧金山金融区 29 层的会议室里,告诉最大的投资人 Joe:投在他基金里的钱已经亏掉 50%。最沉重的细节是这笔钱不是 Joe 公司的机构资金,而是他的个人资金。更关键的是,讲者募第一支基金时被一百多人拒绝,Joe 属于点头的五六人之一,而 Joe 投的不是业绩记录(他当时没有任何业绩),投的是他这个人。所以亏损不只是数字失败,而是辜负了一份对个人的信任。

2. 赛艇训练里那个「20 秒」的数据是怎么拆分的?讲者用它证明了什么?

从 9 月报到到次年 3 月,他的 2000 米划船机成绩大约提高 20 秒。其中只有 10 秒来自长达六个月的划船、跑台阶和力量训练,另外 10 秒是在头两周就拿到的。他强调,头两周里心肺能力、力量、最大摄氧量和技术都不可能改变,唯一改变的是对难受的耐受度。因此一年进步的一半来自「愿意把自己逼到什么程度」,而不是生理能力提升——这把「做难的事」从道德劝告变成了可测量的产能问题。

3. 2008 年危机中,那位高管教练给出的「写故事」有哪三条规则?

第一,把故事的时间点设在五年之后,以跳出眼前的战争迷雾——人在危机中只能看到面前六英寸。第二,从「极乐」起笔,不许写平庸版本,问题是「如果你知道自己不会失败,你会做什么」。第三,忘掉「怎么做」,因为「how 是一切伟大梦想的杀手」,可行性审查若提前介入就会把目标压缩到现有能力范围内。三条规则合起来,把目标设定与执行焦虑在时间上强行分离。

4. 「先变糟」的曲线里,讲者认为下陷部分最主要的成分是什么?这个判断为什么重要?

他明确说,那条下滑曲线里最大的部分只是恐惧,而不是真实损失。这一判断重要,是因为它把「改变的成本」重新做了归因:如果下陷主要由恐惧构成,那么反复暴露就能让它衰减,曲线会越来越浅——正如他在赛艇 2000 米里不再感到恐惧。这条也是全篇的暗线,直接通向结尾「你唯一真正的障碍是恐惧」以及四原则被定义为「恐惧的解药」。

5. 戴夫(Dave)在演讲中的作用是什么?为什么说他不是一个反面人物?

戴夫在纽约晚宴上滔滔不绝地讲债务条款不逐季下调、省下 50 个基点利息、备考调整后 TTM EBITDA 等细节,兴奋得像在殖民火星。讲者当时想到两件事:戴夫会在竞争中彻底压过自己,因为自己对这些毫不在乎;以及戴夫讲的正是他当年商学院申请文书里写的事。所以戴夫是正面样本——他在活自己的梦想,而讲者在活别人的。结论是「你靠别人的梦想赢不了,最多撑一阵」。

6. 从复利公式 (1+r)^n 出发,讲者主张把精力放在哪个变量上?他的依据是什么?

他主张放在 n,即坚持的年数,而不是 r,即年度进步速度。依据是:r 可以通过高管教练、写目标、冥想等手段改善,但改善幅度有限;而 n 处在指数位上,他自己已做到第 23 年,累积效应压倒任何单年优化。所以他说成长速度「几乎无所谓」,只要每年都在变好,关键在于愿意做多久。(他口误把 n 说成 quadratic,实际应是 exponential,不影响论证。)

7. 「写故事」这一做法,讲者自己是如何解释它并非玄学的?

他先承认「把愿望放进宇宙、宇宙会回应」听起来很 woo woo,然后拆出三个机制:一是目标让人给自己戴上眼罩,注意力只朝一个方向收窄;二是有了目标就能把每一天的日程与它对齐;三是会吸引到想去同一个地方的人。也就是说,故事改变的不是外部世界,而是注意力分配、行动排序和人才筛选,这三者叠加才产生看似神奇的结果。

8. Alpine 那家最大企业的翻盘案例中,哪句话最能说明讲者的归因逻辑?

是「我们的行业没变,市场没变,竞争对手也没变,是我们变了」。这是一个近似控制变量的陈述:外部条件恒定,绩效却从几乎丢掉所有合同,变成 18 个月后两年里只丢一份合同。中间唯一的变量是他们换了故事,并按故事的第一步去招 CEO(Mark Strauch),再依次搭团队、做技术、提升 uptime、组建销售、抄底并购。他借此反驳自己此前「雷曼倒了、银行不放贷、我们完蛋了」的外部归因。

9. Monty 的死为什么在逻辑上(而不只是情感上)构成全篇的转折?

因为它给「为规避下行而活」这套策略提供了反证。讲者的策略前提是:只要足够小心,就能保护住底线。而朋友 23 岁死于空难,是他所说的「终极下行」——最坏的结果根本无法被规避。既然下行不可能被真正防住,把全部资源花在防守上就是错配,理性的做法只能是转向上行。于是他在飞机上作出决定:从此再不说「不是我,不是现在」,并在几天内结束感情、辞职放弃股权奖金、开车去科罗拉多。

10. 如果有人反驳:「你这是幸存者偏差——押注上行的人大多输光了,我们只听到赢家演讲」,按演讲内容,讲者会怎么回应?

他的回应大概率落在不对称性的定义本身:下行被限定为亏掉一倍本金,而上行不封顶,所以在结构上单次押注的最坏结果是有界的、可承受的。他还会指出自己并未美化过程——五年募不到基金、掏空储蓄发工资、七家公司违约、被拒一百多次,这些恰恰是「输」的样子,只是没有出局。最后他会把重点从「押注」转回可控项:做难的事、做自己的事、做几十年,这三者提高的是 r 与 n,而非依赖单次幸运。当然,这一回应无法完全消解统计意义上的幸存者偏差,只能说明他的方案在下行有界时更值得承担。

11. 「做几十年」和「做你自己的事」这两条原则,放到需要中途转向的情境(比如所在行业被技术颠覆)还成立吗?

从演讲逻辑看,两条原则并不要求锁死某个具体业务。「do your thing」指的是投入度与内在驱动,而非某个行业标签;「do it for decades」强调的是 n 这个复利变量,而复利可以累积在能力、声誉与人际网络上,未必绑定单一产品。讲者本人也提供了先例:他先在大型 PE 工作,再辞职创办 Alpine,从工业标签生意转向软件与服务,行业变了但持续性未断。真正与他原则冲突的,是因为恐惧而转向——他会说那是伪装成「务实」的 not me, not now,而不是真正的战略调整。

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